Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through the large-scale troughing expected to be in place across the eastern CONUS, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Expansive surface ridging will cover much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the associated dry and stable conditions dominating the sensible weather and precluding thunderstorm development. Father west, ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. Frontal band associated with the progressive shortwave will likely move onshore early Friday. Some deeper cells are possible within this band, but these cells will still be too shallow for lightning production. Another period of deeper convection is possible as the upper trough and cold mid-level temperatures approach the coast Friday afternoon. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible offshore, with a low-probability flash or two possible over immediate coastal portions of WA and OR as well. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through the large-scale troughing expected to be in place across the eastern CONUS, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Expansive surface ridging will cover much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the associated dry and stable conditions dominating the sensible weather and precluding thunderstorm development. Father west, ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. Frontal band associated with the progressive shortwave will likely move onshore early Friday. Some deeper cells are possible within this band, but these cells will still be too shallow for lightning production. Another period of deeper convection is possible as the upper trough and cold mid-level temperatures approach the coast Friday afternoon. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible offshore, with a low-probability flash or two possible over immediate coastal portions of WA and OR as well. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more