Aggregator

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0551 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0551 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0551 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0551 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 551 SEVERE TSTM MT 281915Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible, while severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible with upscale growth into a cluster or two this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Helena MT to 75 miles east of Lewistown MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DIK TO 15 WNW BIS TO 45 WNW JMS TO 20 N JMS. ..KERR..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-015-029-037-041-043-047-051-059-085-281940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

960
ABPZ20 KNHC 281739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Depression Two-C also located
in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have decreased in coverage this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two. The system is forecast to
move generally westward around 10 mph and enter the Central Pacific
basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-C are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-C are issued
under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MD 1822 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550... FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1822 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...southern North Dakota...adjacent northern South Dakota...southeastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550... Valid 281542Z - 281745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550 continues. SUMMARY...Storms now spreading across south central North Dakota have undergone recent weakening. It is still possible that this activity could re-intensify while spreading eastward into early afternoon, but this remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Strongest convection remains confined to a compact area, near an associated meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation which has been accompanied by a narrow swath of strong to severe gusts along its southwestern periphery. This is now passing near and to the southwest/through south of Bismarck, though it has undergone recently weakening based on radar trends. It appears that weakening may be in response to updraft inflow of more stable air. Objective analysis does indicate some downstream destabilization is underway, but forcing for convective development is weak, and there is potentially substantive mid-level inhibition near the northern periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeast of the Rockies. This appears roughly delineated by the +12 to +14 isotherms around 700 mb, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary to slowly shift north/east of the North/South Dakota states border area into this afternoon. Given these trends, persistence of upstream convection now spreading near/north of Baker MT into southwestern North Dakota also remains unclear. However, this activity appears more likely to remain rooted in warm advection, above boundary-layer air stabilized by convective outflow. ..Kerr.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 46710051 46589814 45709832 45680050 45530219 45700350 46030487 46530428 46470262 46710051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries, with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast KS. Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas, boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by afternoon. ...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA... This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity. Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution. ...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft, in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region, steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe wind gusts. ..ND... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2025 Read more