Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A derecho is likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Isolated to potentially scattered storms may product severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A derecho is likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Isolated to potentially scattered storms may product severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A derecho is likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Isolated to potentially scattered storms may product severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A derecho is likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Isolated to potentially scattered storms may product severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

MD 1819 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1819 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...parts of IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280634Z - 280800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts may persist for a couple more hours, but should diminish along a weakening MCS across Iowa. DISCUSSION...The large MCS arcing mainly over northern into central IA has still produced recent measured strong to severe gusts of 50-60 mph. Although deep convective cores have become confined to northwest IA, trailing the large-scale convective outflow by 20-30 miles, a feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream should maintain strong storm cores through the pre-dawn hours across western IA. MCS weakening trends have been well advertised across the suite of evening guidance and appear likely to continue. But given the presence upper 70s surface dew points along the MO Valley through much of southern IA, potential exists for strong to marginal severe gusts to persist for a couple more hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42539600 42309529 42099464 41979424 42069357 42399241 42519175 42219122 41859119 41399166 41119266 41149394 41119518 41489587 41979635 42319652 42669637 42539600 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ...Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ...Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more