Aggregator

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0550 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 28 12:35:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. ...Northern Plains... A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return of low-level moisture and heating across this region by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD, a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg) aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this early activity. The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected, possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before weakening late tonight. ...Central MT... Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern South Dakota Southwest Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 07/28/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Eastern portion of the Central Pacific (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low
pressure area located about 950 miles southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing signs of organization and have persisted
overnight. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or
storm is likely to develop later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1650 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have become a little better organized overnight. Additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two as it moves generally
westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
later part of this week as it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MD 1820 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MT...WESTERN ND...AND FAR NORTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...eastern MT...western ND...and far northwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281002Z - 281200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible through mid-morning with initial elevated storms across the northern Great Plains. Some potential exists for greater than anticipated coverage which could warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past several hours, but one cell has recently intensified near GDV. GSL-MPAS runs appear to be favorably handling this activity spatially, albeit slower than observed. The general expectation are for these storms to persist through daybreak into mid-morning, largely eastward in ND along the buoyancy gradient. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, as sampled by the GGW VWP, will be sufficient for updraft rotation and a primary threat of large hail. Weak convection has also recently formed near the MT/ND/SD border area. If this activity intensifies as well, a broader cluster might emerge which could increase the severe wind threat later this morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47440506 47960221 47850115 47140051 46260091 45790163 45630266 45750410 45960502 46180629 46360694 46730682 47440506 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280907
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Special outlook issued to include a recently formed area of low
pressure southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days as it moves generally
westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A disturbance located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. During the next day or two, an area of
low pressure is forecast to form from this area of disturbed
weather, well off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern portion of the Central Pacific:
Updated: Satellite derived winds indicate that a small area of low
pressure has formed around 1000 miles southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. If deep convection persists, a short lived tropical
depression or tropical storm could develop later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public advisories on Tropical Storm Iona are issued under WMO header
WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iona are issued under WMO
header WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend. In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe weather remains low. Read more