Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281807Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across portions of central Montana this afternoon by 19-20z, with increasing threat for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is observed in visible satellite across the high terrain in central Montana. MLCIN remains in place across much of central/western Montana but insolation under mostly sunny skies should erode this over the next couple of hours. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support supercell modes initially. Linear hodographs will support potential for splitting cells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Some clustering and building along outflow is likely by the late afternoon, with potential for increase in the damaging wind threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this severe potential in the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46441136 46761221 47041239 47441240 47691208 47991054 48011017 48080908 47980781 47500689 46800636 46110655 45890673 45420788 45690939 45951005 46201081 46441136 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...20z update... The previous outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest model guidance. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry strikes, are likely over much of the Northwest Tuesday. While several rounds of storms have resulted in some precipitation accumulation and wetting of fuels, widely scattered storms with limited precipitation efficiency will still pose a risk for ignitions over parts of the southern Cascades and northern CA. A few storms may continue overnight into early D3/Wednesday with isolated lightning possible. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E Y22 TO JMS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-047-051-085-282040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS LOGAN MCINTOSH SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more