Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Far Northern Nebraska...Western Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552... Valid 282249Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from much of central and eastern South Dakota southward into far northern Nebraska. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Severe weather watch issuance is expected early this evening to the east of the ongoing watch, as the severe threat moves eastward toward southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res imagery from Sioux Falls, South Dakota shows three intense discrete supercells ongoing in south-central South Dakota. The storms are located to the west of a north-to-south moisture axis where surface dewpoints are in the lower 80s F. The low-level moisture is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing a pocket of MLCAPE in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Dakotas. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much of the northern Plains. The Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has a substantial amount of low-level directional shear, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will support continued supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. Over the next several hours, convective coverage is expected to increase, as a gradual consolidation of convection occurs. In response, a fast-moving line of storms is expected to form by early to mid evening in eastern South Dakota, which will likely increase the wind-damage threat with bowing line segments along its leading edge. Wind gusts in the 80 to 100 mph will be possible. ..Broyles.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42549939 42650001 42860025 43190036 43750018 44559981 45359920 45969797 46099711 45989603 45499544 44589526 43999539 43309559 42659600 42359705 42549939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LVM TO 10 S LWT TO 30 NNW LWT TO 40 SSW HVR. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC015-027-033-037-045-065-069-071-107-290140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS WHEATLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MHN TO 40 SW 9V9 TO 20 WSW 9V9 TO 15 NNW 9V9 TO 35 N 9V9 TO 25 WNW HON TO 15 N ATY TO 45 N VVV. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-155-290140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE TRAVERSE NEC015-017-089-103-149-290140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-017-023-025-027-029-035-039-043-051-053- 057-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-123-125-127-135- 290140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-290140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-290140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0553 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0553 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Far Northern Nebraska...Western Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552... Valid 282249Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from much of central and eastern South Dakota southward into far northern Nebraska. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Severe weather watch issuance is expected early this evening to the east of the ongoing watch, as the severe threat moves eastward toward southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res imagery from Sioux Falls, South Dakota shows three intense discrete supercells ongoing in south-central South Dakota. The storms are located to the west of a north-to-south moisture axis where surface dewpoints are in the lower 80s F. The low-level moisture is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing a pocket of MLCAPE in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Dakotas. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much of the northern Plains. The Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has a substantial amount of low-level directional shear, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will support continued supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. Over the next several hours, convective coverage is expected to increase, as a gradual consolidation of convection occurs. In response, a fast-moving line of storms is expected to form by early to mid evening in eastern South Dakota, which will likely increase the wind-damage threat with bowing line segments along its leading edge. Wind gusts in the 80 to 100 mph will be possible. ..Broyles.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42549939 42650001 42860025 43190036 43750018 44559981 45359920 45969797 46099711 45989603 45499544 44589526 43999539 43309559 42659600 42359705 42549939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1825 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551... Valid 282228Z - 290000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail will remain possible with the stronger, supercellular storms. Severe gusts may also accompany the stronger storms that may merge. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells and multicellular clusters have developed across central MT over the past few hours, and current MRMS mosaic radar trends depict an increase in both coverage and intensity. MRMS MESH suggests that at least marginally severe hail is falling with these storms, and 22Z mesoanalysis depicts over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding the storms. A such, severe hail will remain a concern for at least a few more hours. There is some chance that the storms may merge to form an MCS. Should this occur, the risk for severe gusts will increase. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47531224 47960863 47770694 47330633 46800673 46460782 46270903 46211018 46201070 46311109 46571183 47531224 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0554 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 554 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE 282355Z - 290600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Iowa Far Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 655 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently moving across southeast SD and north-central NE are showing signs of organizing into a convective line. Given the presence of a very unstable and strongly sheared airmass downstream, this convective line could become intense, capable of producing severe gusts up to 80 mph. A brief line-embedded tornado could occur as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Worthington MN to 15 miles south southeast of Norfolk NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 551...WW 552...WW 553... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located
in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph and enters the Central Pacific basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PHP TO 40 ENE PIR TO 20 SSW ABR TO 65 NW VVV. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-155-290040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE TRAVERSE NEC015-017-031-089-103-149-290040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-007-009-011-015-017-023-025-027-029-035-037-039-043- 051-053-057-059-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-091- 095-097-099-101-109-111-115-121-123-125-127-135-290040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BENNETT Read more

WW 552 SEVERE TSTM MN NE SD 282045Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central Minnesota Northern Nebraska Central and eastern South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial severe storm development is underway across south central South Dakota, where supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible, as well as an isolated tornado or two with storms near the front closer to Huron. Eventual upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected, with an increasing threat for swaths of damaging winds (potentially up to 80-90 mph) with any bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Valentine NE to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 551... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0553 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0553 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more