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WW 553 SEVERE TSTM MN 282330Z - 290600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Minnesota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 630 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms over far northeast SD is expected to continue southeastward into central MN this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts are possible within this line as it progresses southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Alexandria MN to 20 miles northeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 551...WW 552... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282312
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

The Central Utah Water Conservancy District asked Heber City residents to limit their outdoor watering to conserve water. In neighboring Coalville, the mayor requested on July 23 that residents adhere to a schedule that allowed watering every other day during certain hours. KPCW-FM 88.1 & 91.9 (Park City, Utah), July 28, 2025

The Nevada Department of Wildlife intended to offer more hunting tags in the fall to reduce the sheep population because there were more than the resources could support. The Nevada Independent (Reno), July 27, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 28 22:04:13 UTC 2025.

MD 1824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern South Dakota...adjacent north central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281947Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development, posing a risk for a few strong downbursts and perhaps some hail, appears possible by 4-6 PM CDT. Timing of a potential severe weather watch issuance remains unclear, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front, now advancing south of Pierre, Philip and Rapid City is becoming better defined, with strengthening differential heating along and ahead of it, centered near the western South Dakota/Nebraska state border northeastward across the Winner toward Huron vicinities. While temperatures are approaching 100 F within the corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating, surface dew points have been slower to mix below 70F, and through the 60s F, than suggested by model forecast soundings at Winner and Valentine. Even so, latest objective analysis suggests that the pre- and post-cold frontal boundary layer remains strongly capped beneath the warm and elevated mixed-layer air as far north as the North/South Dakota state border vicinity. Mid/upper support for sustained boundary-layer based convection anytime soon remains unclear, although it appears possible that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east-northeast of the Black Hills is contributing to ongoing attempts at convective development. It appears more probable that with further insolation, continued heating and deeper mixing within the pre-frontal boundary-layer may eventually support intensifying, high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, this activity could pose a risk for severe hail and increasing potential for strong downbursts into early evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43370091 44049966 44449790 43689659 43239776 42699886 42500075 43370091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more