Aggregator

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-031-037-065-067-087-095-097-103-107-111-292340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PARK ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC003-013-017-019-025-029-033-043-292340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN FREMONT HOT SPRINGS JOHNSON NATRONA PARK SHERIDAN WASHAKIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1835 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
Mesoscale Discussion 1835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Nevada into southwestern Oregon Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292039Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible across portions of northeast Nevada into southwest Oregon with dry thunderstorm outflow. Weather watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development ongoing in a deeply-mixed, dry boundary layer will result in some chances of strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts. With LCL heights at 3.5km and low-level RH well below 20%, evaporative cooling within downdrafts will result in gusty thunderstorm outflow. The greatest chance for strong to severe winds will be along the leading edge of any outflow boundaries. ..Halbert.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41161864 41061930 41081970 41282005 41452017 41732031 42062034 42402028 42642004 42881960 43011914 43011871 42931809 42821762 42641729 42451710 42181701 42001697 41851696 41681698 41531711 41451724 41351762 41211821 41161864 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1836 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292134Z - 292230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany a mature MCS over the next few hours. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An eastward-propagating, cold-pool-driven MCS is in progress across southern SD, and is advancing into a highly unstable airmass, characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8 C/km lapse rates atop 70s F surface dewpoints. Vertical wind shear is not overly strong in proximity to this MCS, with only 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear in place, which is parallel to the MCS line orientation. Nonetheless, the strong to extreme instability and eroding MLCINH in advance of the MCS should compensate for any negative factors involving shear MCS intensity to support at least some organized threat for severe gusts. In addition, the more mixed boundary layer in southeast SD will support higher DCAPE downstream, which may further augment the severe wind potential. Evolution of the MCS will be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43670070 44119993 44239878 43899676 43539608 43059615 42789659 42729747 42759819 42879884 43129963 43330023 43670070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0557 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0557 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 557 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 292155Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across south-central SD are organizing into a convective line that will likely continue southeastward into the very unstable airmass downstream across far southeast SD and far northeast NE. Strong gusts are possible with this line as it moves into this region this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD to 15 miles east of Yankton SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1834 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwest into central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291959Z - 292200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorm development may become focused across parts of southwestern into central Nebraska through 4-7 PM CDT. This may include a few evolving supercell structures posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing across much of western Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains, a strongly heating (including surface temperatures approaching 100 F) and increasingly deeply mixed boundary layer is becoming characterized by moderate CAPE based on latest objective analysis. Mid-level inhibition is gradually eroding and deepening convective development is evident, including the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity. As a weak mid-level perturbation shifts east of the Front Range, models suggest that thunderstorm development may increase either side of a remnant frontal zone within the lee surface trough, which is forecast to slowly shift southeast of the high plains through early evening. Near the nose of the stronger pre-frontal heating, now developing north and east of the McCook NE vicinity toward areas between North Platte and Kearney, surface dew points in the lower 70s F are contributing to moderate to large CAPE along an initially stalled segment of the frontal zone, where low-level convergence may eventually focus strongest thunderstorm development. Although wind fields in lower through mid-levels are rather weak, easterly near-surface flow veering to northerly near the eastward migrating frontal wave (beneath southerly mid-level flow) may contribute to sufficient shear for intensifying supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Otherwise, storms, particularly those forming in the strongly heated pre-frontal environment, may pose a risk for locally strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41370111 41600024 41509902 40809880 40069930 40170045 40220138 40670161 41370111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more