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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Mineral companies that operate on the Great Salt Lake were required to use less water as the lake approached alarmingly low levels. Junior water rights holders in the Great Salt Lake basin will also receive less water this year. Utah News Dispatch (Salt Lake City), July 29, 2025

MD 1833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Wyoming into southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291933Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon across portions of northern Wyoming into southern Montana in anticipation of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway across portions of Yellowstone National Park into southern/central Montana, with storms anticipated to move off the higher terrain and into the better buoyancy this afternoon. MLCAPE at or exceeding 1000 J/kg, combined with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear is expected to support organized thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Current SPC surface objective mesoanalysis shows Significant Hail Parameter values of 1.5-2.0 across portions of southeastern Montana. RAP/HRRR forecast profiles over the next few hours in the vicinity of northern Wyoming into Montana corroborate this with steep low-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. Depending on the location, low-level wind profiles vary from straight-line (favoring supercell splits), to cyclonically curved (favoring right supercell motions). Either scenario will support a large hail threat, including significant (2.00+ inch) hail with the most robust, isolated thunderstorms. The steep low-level lapse rates, coupled with higher LCL heights/dryer boundary layer profiles in the deeply-mixed air will also support a severe wind threat that will be maximized with any bowing outflow segments. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed within the next few hours. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 43750940 44260979 44631016 44901050 45171078 45311105 45481123 45831152 46051166 46381159 46811105 47061041 47120980 47120919 47050874 46830819 46730797 46340753 45600725 45060734 44510751 44330773 44060810 43800862 43660908 43680925 43750940 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0556 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0556 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The City of Newport issued a stage one water curtailment notice on Monday, July 28. Under stage one restrictions, residents were urged to reduce their water usage as below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures were straining water supplies. KOIN-TV CBS 6 (Portland, Ore.), July 29, 2025

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 29 20:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of severe gusts will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with the early stages of convective initiation underway across portions of north/northwest WY and along the central High Plains per recent satellite imagery and regional radar composites. The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of significant hail/wind areas to portions of the northern Rockies. Latest GOES imagery shows convection beginning to develop across northern WY/southern MT ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Basin. Regional 18z soundings continue to sample steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, and GOES imagery suggests 30-40 knot mid-level winds are overspreading the region. As such, a favorable environment for a few supercells appears to be in place and should support the potential for very large hail. This activity should grow upscale through late evening with the potential for a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. See MCD #1833 for additional short-term details. Across the Plains, the significant wind risk area has been adjusted to better align with recent convective development along a stationary boundary draped from southwest to northeast across NE and where boundary-layer mixing appears to be deepest (based on observed dewpoint depressions), which should favor stronger downdrafts and a higher potential for significant gusts. See MCD #1834 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...CO/NE/IA... Surface analysis indicates a frontal zone draped from IA west-southwestward into the central High Plains. Moist conditions either side of the boundary and ample heating will promote a very to extremely unstable airmass as temperatures continue to warm through the mid afternoon. Initial storms are progged over the central High Plains with perhaps other activity continuing across the mid MS Valley through the afternoon. Hail/wind will be possible with the earlier storms, but a gradual increase in storm coverage is forecast this evening into the overnight near/north of the boundary. Severe gusts will tend to be the main severe hazard tonight. ...WY/MT... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a prominent shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin moving into eastern ID/WY this afternoon. A moist (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) and destabilizing boundary layer near/northeast of a residual frontal zone, coupled with orographic and large-scale ascent, will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly flow beneath moderate westerlies will yield effective shear supporting organized storms, including a few supercells and organized clusters. Hail/wind will be the primary severe hazards before a tendency for upscale growth into linear clusters during the evening. ...Southeast OR... A mid-level trough over the Sierra into the northern Great Basin, embedded within larger-scale trough over the West Coast, will move northward through this evening across the northern Great Basin into southern OR/ID. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will probably focus along the leading edge of ascent as low to mid tropospheric lapse rates exceed 9 deg C/km. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores/clusters, mainly during the 22-04 UTC period. Read more