Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If the thunderstorms
persist or increase, this system will likely become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves westward into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 29 17:35:02 UTC 2025.

077
ABNT20 KNHC 291720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of northern CA, OR and western ID this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms are likely to pose a risk for lightning ignitions within dry fuels. A few storms my persist overnight across eastern OR with a continued threat for occasional lightning strikes. Will maintain the IsoDryT highlights with little change. ...Southern Great Basin... A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible this afternoon across parts of southern NV and far southwestern UT. Enhanced mid-level flow will overspread drier parts of the Great Basin. Isolated wind gusts of 15 mph and RH below 15% could support some locally elevated fire-weather potential this afternoon. Though the lack of stronger winds suggests this threat will remain isolated. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the western extent of the ridge over portions of the northwestern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Here, high-based thunderstorms should develop atop a dry boundary layer, with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been issued given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more