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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...CO/NE/IA... Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US, with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the southern Rockies. Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and winds aloft. Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an organized MCS across NE/western IA. This activity may persist well into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...WY/MT... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY. Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization. Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds. As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop through the evening. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...CO/NE/IA... Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US, with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the southern Rockies. Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and winds aloft. Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an organized MCS across NE/western IA. This activity may persist well into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...WY/MT... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY. Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization. Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds. As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop through the evening. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025 Read more

799
ABPZ20 KNHC 291138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
A well-defined area of low pressure located around 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce a
limited amount of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph. This system is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1832 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... FOR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast IA and northwest IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555... Valid 290818Z - 290945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts should finally diminish before dawn, but may linger beyond the 09Z expiration of WW 555. A local extension in time/area is possible, with an additional WW issuance remaining unlikely. DISCUSSION...After a flurry of measured severe gusts and wind damage with a bow across northeast to east-central IA, overall MCS structure has weakened again upon approach to southeast IA. It seems unlikely that another bow evolution producing a coherent severe swath will occur again as the western portion of the line has become oriented west/east. With a lack of low-level mass response ahead of the cluster, but still ample buoyancy to the IA/MO/IL border area, strong to sporadic severe gusts will remain possible but should diminish over the next couple hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 42289086 41728955 41318931 41018934 40758952 40428995 40379046 40409172 40669197 41339228 41519152 42289086 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend which will push a cold front south to near the Gulf Coast. Limited instability in the wake of this front should limit severe weather potential for many areas east of the Plains. As the upper-level ridge weakens across the Plains by the end of the weekend, more zonal flow across the Mountains will lead to weak lee troughing. Southerly/southeasterly flow will result in some instability across the High Plains. Mid-level flow will not be that strong, but should be sufficient for some isolated severe weather potential. However, predictability decreases significantly once the ridge breaks down and therefore, it is unclear when or where a more organized severe weather threat may occur. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold front which is forecast to move south into the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm intensity/coverage along the front. To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms within this unstable environment, storm organization remains questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the Southeast into the Carolinas. The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at a later time. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

WW 0555 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DSM TO 30 E ALO TO 55 NW DBQ. ..GRAMS..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC011-013-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-099-103-105-107-113- 157-171-183-290840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN POWESHIEK TAMA WASHINGTON WIC043-290840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more