SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL TO 50 SE WRL TO 30 WSW SHR TO 20 ESE LVM TO 35 N BZN. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-097-103-107-111- 300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC019-025-033-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON NATRONA SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 556 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 292030Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Montana Central and Northern Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the afternoon and persist into the early to mid evening. A few supercells may evolve from the stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon. Upscale growth into one or two small clusters is expected. Large to very large hail will potentially accompany any supercell that develops, and severe gusts (60-80 mph) are possible with the more intense downdrafts and outflow. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Harlowton MT to 45 miles east southeast of Lander WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-045-157-165-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC001-005-009-011-015-021-027-031-045-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK GOSHEN LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE WESTON Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-045-157-165-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC001-005-009-011-015-021-027-031-045-300240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK GOSHEN LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE WESTON Read more

SPC MD 1839

3 weeks 1 day ago
MD 1839 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern South Dakota into northeast Nebraska and northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557... Valid 300030Z - 300200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 continues. SUMMARY...The severe gust threat should persist with the ongoing MCS for at least a couple more hours. It is unclear how far southeast the MCS will progress, so conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of any downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watches. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of several reported severe wind gusts, continues to gradually propagate to the east-southeast over southeastern SD. Extreme buoyancy (i.e. 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) precedes the MCS, but with marginal deep-layer shear and weak low-level shear. As such, the MCS continues to propagate forward at only 30 kts, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing slight weakening trends (i.e. overall weaker echoes exceeding 50 kft). It is unclear how far southeast the MCS will propagate, especially since a residual northwest-to-southeast oriented frontal boundary continues to push southwestward across the MCS path with cooler and potentially more stable air. Nonetheless, given existent strong to extreme buoyancy, MCS behavior will continue to be monitored for the possible need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 43859779 43699654 43269549 42629510 42199521 41999570 42029652 42189764 42389843 42499868 43859779 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557 Status Reports

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONL TO 5 WNW YKN TO 30 SSW BKX. ..SQUITIERI..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR CUMING DAKOTA DIXON KNOX MADISON PIERCE STANTON THURSTON WAYNE SDC027-083-099-125-127-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557

3 weeks 1 day ago
WW 557 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 292155Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across south-central SD are organizing into a convective line that will likely continue southeastward into the very unstable airmass downstream across far southeast SD and far northeast NE. Strong gusts are possible with this line as it moves into this region this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD to 15 miles east of Yankton SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC MD 1838

3 weeks 1 day ago
MD 1838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Eastern Wyoming...Far Western South Dakota...Far Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292322Z - 300145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop from far southeast Montana into eastern Wyoming over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass over the central and northern High Plains, with upslope flow in place from western Nebraska and western South Dakota into eastern Wyoming. Surface heating is maximized near a surface trough located in east-central Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms, with some severe, are ongoing near the trough. Short-term model forecasts including the HRRR, continue to increase convective coverage, suggesting that a line will develop in far southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Wyoming early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for large hail and severe gusts with supercells. Intense multicell line segments may also produce severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45630416 45790467 45770546 45530600 44800605 43540603 42090606 41420602 41110544 41070463 41170402 41530352 42190339 43330350 45220397 45630416 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more