Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DNS TO 5 SE SLB TO 25 NW FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-047-073-077-085-151-161-165-187-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CRAWFORD GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON POCAHONTAS SAC SHELBY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more