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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SDA TO 15 SW DSM TO 45 W ALO. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-039-051-053-075-099-117-123-125-127-135-153-157-159- 169-171-173-175-179-181-185-300940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR GRUNDY JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SDA TO 15 SW DSM TO 45 W ALO. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-039-051-053-075-099-117-123-125-127-135-153-157-159- 169-171-173-175-179-181-185-300940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR GRUNDY JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...560...561... FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MO/IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...southern/eastern IA and adjacent parts of MO/IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...560...561... Valid 300628Z - 300830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559, 560, 561 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to sporadic severe gusts will remain possible through sunrise across much of southern to eastern Iowa and adjacent portions of Missouri and Illinois. The more concentrated threat is anticipated over south-central Iowa where WW 561 was recently coordinated. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of strong to locally severe storms are ongoing, a lead one over east-central IA and a broader arc across west-central to southwest IA. A measured gust of 58 mph was reported last hour at KMIW and sporadic gusts of 50-70 mph will be possible with the lead cluster as it moves east at around 30 mph in eastern IA. Greater organizational character with a more pronounced cold pool accompanies the north-northeast to southwest oriented QLCS in western IA. While the northern extent will progress atop the lead cluster's outflow, ample buoyancy to its south with mid to upper 70s surface dew points should foster mainly strong with sporadic severe gusts as it moves east-southeast at around 30 mph through daybreak. ..Grams.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 42329467 42139385 41779315 41859276 42219246 42569189 42579087 42339020 41589016 40629086 40499147 40349219 40309377 40319470 40339543 40459572 40679567 41259503 41599472 42329467 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE SDA TO 30 E FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-013-015-039-049-051-053-075-079-083-099-117-121- 123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185- 300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SDA TO 35 NE SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC137-145-300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONTGOMERY PAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SDA TO 35 NE SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC137-145-300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONTGOMERY PAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SDA TO 35 NE SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC137-145-300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONTGOMERY PAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SDA TO 35 NE SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC137-145-300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONTGOMERY PAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SDA TO 35 NE SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC137-145-300840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONTGOMERY PAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 560 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 300245Z - 300900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southwest Iowa East-Central and Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 945 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to continue southeastward, perhaps even turning a bit more south-southeastward, into east-central/southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa this evening. Strong to severe gusts will remain possible with this line as it moves through the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Columbus NE to 15 miles southwest of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556...WW 557...WW 558...WW 559... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Friday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will remain centered across the High Plains on Friday with a sharpening mid-level trough advancing southeast across the Northeast. At the surface, a front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to central Texas. Shear is forecast to remain very weak south of this frontal zone. This weak shear, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, should limit overall storm organization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Rockies on Friday and eventually spread into the adjacent Plains where greater instability is present. Isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts could be possible. At this time, it unclear how many strong storms may develop across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This uncertainty, combined with weaker shear than D2/Friday, precludes a Marginal Risk addition at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more