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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

A cattle rancher in Heart Butte on the Blackfeet Reservation moved his livestock to a spring-fed pasture after his lake dried up, but the new pasture was trending drier. Flathead Beacon (Kalispell, Mont.), July 29, 2025

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central/eastern Illinois into northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301702Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may undergo gradual intensification with increasing potential for locally strong to severe wind gusts while advancing eastward around 20-30 kt, into and through mid to late afternoon (2-4 PM CDT/3-5 PM EDT). It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along a modest eastward propagating convective cold pool has undergone recent renewed intensification, likely aided by easterly low-level updraft inflow of destabilizing boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high moisture content (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points). The boundary-layer moisture may be contributing to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, forecast soundings indicate that lapse rates in mid/upper-levels are modest to weak. Although a belt of southwesterly flow on the order of 30-40 kts in the 700-500 mb layer may be contributing to at least moderately strong deep-layer shear, deeper-layer mean flow remains a rather modest to weak 15-25 kts. Still, the shear and forcing for ascent associated with a supporting upstream mid-level trough may be sufficient to maintain ongoing activity through this afternoon. Gradually, further insolation, boundary-layer warming and steepening of low-level lapse rates could contribute to further intensification of convection development, with possible developing embedded mesoscale cyclonic circulations and a strengthening cold pool, accompanied by increasing potential for locally strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41768740 41838540 40718550 38748726 38348881 38878987 39638908 40318882 41768740 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MAINE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...central Maine...portions of northern New Hampshire and Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301601Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity developing over the next few hours may increasingly pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts by 3-5 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger, but modest, destabilization is underway across parts of southeastern Ontario and adjacent Quebec through portions of central Maine. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation, beneath the southern periphery of a broad mid-level cold pool associated with upper troughing slowly digging across the eastern Canadian provinces. Forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air associated with broad, increasingly suppressed, ridging further aloft may limit the magnitude of developing CAPE, but thermodynamic profiles may still be sufficiently cool and unstable in mid-levels to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail. Although low-level wind fields are rather modest, deep-layer shear associated with a westerly jet in mid/upper-levels is strong. Flow on the order of 30-50 kt appears as low as the 700-500 layer, contributing to mean flow around 25-30 kts in the lowest 6 km AGL. This may gradually support modest east-southeast storm motions, and potential for locally strong to severe surface gusts, as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen and thunderstorm activity intensifies in peak afternoon destabilization. Deepening convective development is already underway off the higher terrain west of Houlton through northwest of Bangor, upstream into the upper St. Lawrence Valley. This likely will strengthen with the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity during the next few hours. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 45696719 44976870 44657152 44657252 45467339 45887244 46097044 46506854 46316779 45696719 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression could still form. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more