Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

594
ABPZ20 KNHC 310513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. Although the system lacks a well-defined
low-level center at this time, some additional development is
possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form
during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continue to become better organized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and if current trends persist, a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form on Thursday. The system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the open waters of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302304Z - 310130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective deep-layer shear across the region. As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441 41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936 43400938 43680909 44220795 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 30 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302304Z - 310130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective deep-layer shear across the region. As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441 41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936 43400938 43680909 44220795 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well
south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and has issued the last
advisory on the remnants of Keli, located in the central
Pacific basin well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped near a broad
area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Although the system lacks a well-defined low-level
center at this time, some additional development is possible, and a
short-lived tropical depression could still form during the next day
or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

West-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have become a little better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward around 15
mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

MD 1850 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302216Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms that manage to sustain themselves. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters have developed along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, amid strong buoyancy but weak vertical wind shear. These storms are already demonstrating outflow tendencies, as noted on regional radar imagery and visible satellite. However, this outflow continues to propagate southward within a highly unstable airmass, characterized by over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by upper 90s/low 70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints. Current thinking is that new updrafts will continue to develop on the leading edge of outflow, with a southward propagation expected. Given weak shear, primary convective mode should be outflow-dominant pulse cellular and multicellular storms. At the height of their intensity, storms may produce a couple instances of severe wind or hail. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37819742 38519554 38409427 37979335 37509318 37189337 37019412 37089521 37079628 37149693 37299743 37819742 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

The Dragon Bravo Fire burning along the Grand Canyon’s North Rim continued to grow, blackening more than 94,000 acres. The containment level dropped to 4% as the fire expanded to the north. The blaze began on July 4 and destroyed the Grand Canyon Lodge on the North Rim on July 12. KJZZ (Phoenix, Ariz.), July 30, 2025

MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...Central Wyoming into Southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302031Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated severe hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon into the evening. However, given that widespread severe storms are not expected at this time, the likelihood of weather watch issuance is low. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm have developed across portions of western and central Wyoming this afternoon, in an environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 45-40 kts of effective deep-layer shear. While there is sufficient shear for some storms to become more intense and organized, the expectation is that any severe storms will largely be isolated and transient in nature. Any organized convection would be capable of 60 MPH wind gusts and any hail is expected to remain below 2.00 inches in size. While the probability of watch issuance is expected to remain low, convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 46040868 46070809 45900752 45740717 45530695 45360670 44900637 43780585 42860549 41990549 41380564 41170578 41110590 41060606 41040618 41030646 41040698 41340723 41720767 42000802 42170832 42410867 42810916 43190946 43850975 44510991 44891000 45270998 45530985 45740960 45930918 46040868 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more