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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CXY TO 20 WSW ABE TO 10 ENE ABE. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-311940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-311940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033- 035-037-039-041-043-045-047-510-311940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL Read more

MD 1852 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING DC
Mesoscale Discussion 1852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...central Maryland...and adjacent portions of northern Virginia...including DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311529Z - 311800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are in the process of developing, and likely to gradually intensify through 1-4 PM EDT, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado might also be possible, particularly across parts of east central and southeastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey. DISCUSSION...Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a short wave perturbation progressing through the southern periphery of larger-scale positively tilted mid-level troughing overspreading the northern Atlantic Seaboard, thunderstorms appear to be initiating along a stalled to slow moving frontal zone, and east of a weak surface low, across the northern Mid Atlantic. This is occurring as insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content (including mid 70s F surface dew points) erodes inhibition. Lapse rates are generally modest to weak, and the boundary layer is not forecast to become deeply mixed, due to the moisture, but profiles still appear supportive of CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Beneath the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, where flow at altitudes as low as 500 mb is around 30-40 kt, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of supercell structures, and perhaps an organizing cluster, with potential to produce strong surface gusts aided by heavy precipitation loading and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. Thermodynamic profiles appear generally warm with limited potential for severe hail. A brief tornado might not be out of the question, but low-level hodographs, particularly south of the surface front, are likely to remain generally weak. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39747713 40357698 40687612 40957453 40617390 39087505 38667600 38597718 39107734 39747713 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

424
ABPZ20 KNHC 311727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
south-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 650 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next 24 hours. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven

880
ABNT20 KNHC 311726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven