Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 986 FOPZ12 KNHC 010235 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 86 3(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 64 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 41(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 987 WTPZ32 KNHC 010235 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL MOVING FASTER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 118.5W ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil will likely become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GIL MOVING FASTER... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 14.2, -118.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 447 WTPZ22 KNHC 010234 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DEN TO 35 S BFF TO 50 ENE DGW. ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-010240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN NEC007-105-157-010240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 312100Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado Western Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify while moving east from the higher terrain and into the adjacent plains. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a threat for scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). Upscale growth into a linear cluster may occur this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Torrington WY to 30 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312252Z - 010115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of loosely organized storm clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334 39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NORTHEASTERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY...northeastern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563... Valid 312332Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue expanding eastward over the next several hours. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of the watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized storm clusters are tracking eastward across southeastern WY and northeastern CO this evening, which will continue posing a risk of severe wind gusts. These storms are evolving along a larger-scale cold pool which is spreading/expanding eastward into a moderately unstable air mass. Recent radar data indicates new updrafts developing along the leading outflow boundary, and around 40 kt of gust-front-orthogonal effective shear may be supporting the development of a loosely organized MCS with eastward extent. The risk of scattered severe wind gusts (60-70 mph) is the primary concern, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability/inhibition tonight. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 may be warranted. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 40150456 41740457 42140493 42600610 42870609 43140569 43200458 43020361 42610295 41180268 40240304 40010371 40150456 Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DEN TO 25 SSW TOR TO 15 W TOR TO 15 WNW DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-123-010140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN WELD NEC007-105-157-010140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-031-010140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN PLATTE Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 562 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 311715Z - 010000Z
CWZ000-010000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southern into Eastern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon. Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely focus a risk for strong to severe wind gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely persist into the early evening before diminishing or moving east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Allentown PA to 50 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NORTHEASTERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY...northeastern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563... Valid 312332Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue expanding eastward over the next several hours. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of the watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized storm clusters are tracking eastward across southeastern WY and northeastern CO this evening, which will continue posing a risk of severe wind gusts. These storms are evolving along a larger-scale cold pool which is spreading/expanding eastward into a moderately unstable air mass. Recent radar data indicates new updrafts developing along the leading outflow boundary, and around 40 kt of gust-front-orthogonal effective shear may be supporting the development of a loosely organized MCS with eastward extent. The risk of scattered severe wind gusts (60-70 mph) is the primary concern, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability/inhibition tonight. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 may be warranted. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 40150456 41740457 42140493 42600610 42870609 43140569 43200458 43020361 42610295 41180268 40240304 40010371 40150456 Read more

MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312252Z - 010115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of loosely organized storm clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334 39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DEN TO 10 E CYS TO 35 SW TOR TO 15 WNW DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 ..WEINMAN..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-123-010040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN WELD NEC007-105-157-010040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-031-010040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN PLATTE Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 312100Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado Western Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify while moving east from the higher terrain and into the adjacent plains. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a threat for scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). Upscale growth into a linear cluster may occur this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Torrington WY to 30 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more