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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 15:26:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 102 WTPZ42 KNHC 011439 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Deep convection in the storm continues to pulse, though it is mostly concentrated in the southern and eastern quadrants. An AMSR2 pass from 0927 UTC showed a large curved band wrapping around much of the circulation. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB both gave Gil a T3.5/55 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this cycle based on these estimates. An ASCAT pass over the storm is expected later today which should help update the wind radii estimates. Gil is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt along the southern side of a subtropical ridge to its north. This general motion should continue for the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn more westward in the low-level flow. Minor adjustments have been made to the latest track forecast which lies slightly south of the previous prediction. Gil only has a short window of about 12 h to strengthen. Thereafter, the storm is expected to cross over cooler sea surface temperatures. By day 2, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase accompanied by falling mid-level humidities. These factors will gradually weaken the cyclone, which is now expected to become post-tropical by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast still expects Gil to strengthen into a hurricane later today, however this prediction lies on the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 44 9(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 125W 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 53(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 121.5W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 121.5 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become a hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is expected over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GIL HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 15.3, -121.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 011436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a trough
of low pressure located well south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable, and
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 09:26:45 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010848 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Geostationary satellite images indicate that Gil continues to become better organized underneath the southern portion of a central dense overcast that contains a fairly large area of -70 to -80 degree C cloud tops. Gil is also displaying banding features that wrap most of the way around the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are a bit lower. Given continued improvement in organization over the past few hours, the initial intensity has been set to 55 kt, and this might be a tad conservative. ASCAT passes from 0437 and 0527 UTC were helpful in analyzing the wind field, and the data indicate that Gil's radius of maximum winds (RMW) is still about 50 n mi. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A fairly strong mid-tropospheric ridge will continue to prevail to the north of Gil for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwestward track, with additional acceleration expected over the next 36 h. The official forecast is very near the previous one and lies between the faster HCCA and the slower TVCE consensus aids. By late in the forecast period, the system will likely turn to a more westward track following the low-level flow. Gil should strengthen steadily over the next 12 to 24 h as the vertical wind shear decreases to the 0-5 kt range. The chance of rapid intensification is not very high since the RMW is currently 50 n mi, and the sea-surface temperatures that Gil is forecast to traverse are forecast to decrease quickly, crossing the 26C isotherm in about 24 h. Beyond 24 h, weakening is expected due to decreasing SSTs. In about 60 h, the west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase along Gil's path, and this should cause Gil to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 3 days, as shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is toward the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 36 h and down the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 944 FOPZ12 KNHC 010847 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 7 24(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 125W 34 2 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 35(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN