Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 891 WTPZ22 KNHC 010847 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 892 WTPZ32 KNHC 010847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 120.1W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.1 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 14.8, -120.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010507
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

334
ABPZ20 KNHC 010504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure located about 650 miles south-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii, continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next day or so. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen