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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing 17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to the east of the Fall Line. An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures. Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening. ...High Plains... No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm coverage and outflow increases during the evening. ...ID/Western MT... A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...AR/LA... Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage. ..Smith/Thornton.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing 17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to the east of the Fall Line. An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures. Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening. ...High Plains... No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm coverage and outflow increases during the evening. ...ID/Western MT... A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...AR/LA... Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage. ..Smith/Thornton.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing 17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to the east of the Fall Line. An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures. Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening. ...High Plains... No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm coverage and outflow increases during the evening. ...ID/Western MT... A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...AR/LA... Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage. ..Smith/Thornton.. 07/31/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:27:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Gil continues to become better organized this morning. Geostationary infrared imagery show steady bursts of embedded deep convection with cloud top temperatures less than -80 degrees Celsius. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle and range between 35 to 46 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, closest to the TAFB and UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimates. The storm is moving at 280/12 kt along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. This mid-level ridge will steer Gil generally west-northwestward for the next few days, with some increase in forward motion. By day 4, the weaker, more shallow cyclone is expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow. The track guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and only minor changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally conducive for Gil to continue strengthening. Statistical indicators even suggest an above average possibility of strong-to-rapid intensification in the next day or so. Thus, the predicted peak intensity has been raised to 75 kt in 36 h based on these factors and an overall increase in the model intensity guidance. Gil is still expected to reach cooler waters and a dry, stable airmass in a couple of days which will cause steady weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Gil becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, when global model show the cyclone will lose all convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.2N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 311434 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 120W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 11 84(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 X 71(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 120W 64 X 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 59(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 11(45) X(45) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 897 WTPZ32 KNHC 311434 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 116.2W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 116.2 West. Gil is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today and this motion with some acceleration is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GIL STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 13.2, -116.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 311434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.2W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 50SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.2W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and recently-formed Tropical Storm Gil,
located well south-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. Although the system lacks a well-defined
low-level center at this time, some additional development is
possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form
during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:47:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 09:26:57 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more