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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0562 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more