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MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...Colorado Front Range Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301810Z - 302015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of severe hail or severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon across the Colorado Front Range into portions of the Eastern Colorado Plains. Given the localized nature of any severe threat, weather watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing over the Central and Front Range of the Rocky Mountains has resulted in widespread thunderstorm development that is expected to continue and persist into eastern Colorado. With most unstable CAPE only reaching 500-1000 J/kg and a relative dearth of deep-layer vertical shear, there is not much environmental support for widespread organized severe convection. However, with freezing levels near the surface-based parcel LFC heights, and inverted-V boundary layer profiles evident in proximity soundings, some isolated incidents of <= 1.25 in hail and severe wind gusts (largely <= 60 MPH) are possible. Some locally higher wind gusts could occur if any convection develops leading-edge outflow or shows signs of transient organization into linear clusters. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... LAT...LON 38280624 38610643 39130647 39550639 40240652 40370660 40570679 40730686 40870678 40950653 40950630 40970587 40970515 40340482 39830463 39430451 38960456 38360488 38160524 38040556 38040600 38190615 38280624 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

Cattle were increasingly crossing roads in search of water as drought persisted, so drivers were urged to be on the lookout. Flathead Beacon (Kalispell, Mont.), July 29, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more