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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 15:33:04 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:52:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 15:27:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:49:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 15:22:32 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071458 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Finding the exact center of Ivo is tricky this morning, but my best guess is that its track has deviated rightward since the prior advisory. A pair of helpful microwave passes, an AMSR2 pass at 0850 UTC and a SSMIS pass at 1050 UTC, showed well-defined curved banding on the 37-GHz to 91-GHz channels respectively. More recently, a visible satellite animation of 1-min GOES-19 imagery shows bursting convection near the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates by TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt respectively, with the objective intensity estimates ranging from 34 to 51 kt. Thus, the initial intensity has been bumped up to 40 kt this morning. Ivo appears to be maintaining a brisk west-northwestward motion, estimated at 300/21 kt. This rapid forward motion is thanks in part to a strong and large mid-level ridge stretching across northern Mexico and southwestern United States. This ridge is forecast to move along with Ivo though it does gradually dampen out in magnitude. The net result of this pattern should keep Ivo on a general west-northwestward heading, with the cyclone turning more westward and slowing down towards the latter half of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle is a little farther north, largely a reflection of the farther north initial position. The latest NHC track forecast is also farther north roughly blending the simple and corrected consensus aids (TVCE and HCCA), but still remains offshore of Mexico, making its point of closest approach in the next 12-18 hours. The small core of Ivo likely could make it susceptible to rapid changes in intensity, either up or down. Because vertical wind shear is relatively low (10-15 kt), and sea surface temperatures remain above 27 C for the next 36 hours, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show significant intensification, making Ivo a hurricane. Thereafter, the storm will reach a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, and should begin a gradual weakening trend. Towards the end of the forecast Ivo will likely lose its remaining deep convection over the sub 24 C waters west of Baja California, marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast remains a bit on the high end of the overall model suite. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it makes its closest approach to Mexico later today. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where Flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 21.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 22.5N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 26(26) 6(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071455 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...TINY IVO CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 104.4W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Ivo is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 24 mph (39 km/h). The system is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Mexico during the next day or so and turn westward away from Mexico thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin