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MD 1898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Central South Dakota to northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072215Z - 080015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail risk through the evening hours. Residual capping and limited storm coverage should preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway along the NE/SD border as deep mixing on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume has eroded inhibition and allowed for convective initiation. Latest mesoanalysis suggests these cells remain in the deeply-mixed environment and should primarily pose a severe wind risk in the near-term given LCLs near 3 km. With time, these cells will migrate east into the deeper moisture where MLCAPE values are in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite the ample buoyancy, stronger capping with eastward extent casts some uncertainty regarding storm longevity through the evening. If updrafts can be sustained through the next couple of hours, they may be able to realize the high-CAPE environment with a substantial uptick in intensity. Deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 knots should support supercellular storm modes with an attendant risk for very large hail. It is uncertain if this ceiling will be realized given the residual capping, potential for early outflow-dominant storms, and recent demise of at least one deeper cell, which limits confidence in the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44810034 44830021 44649985 44299963 43809970 43149992 42600014 42240064 42140115 42160178 42330210 42560225 42970221 43780193 44220168 44520137 44770094 44810034 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by
tonight. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the eastern
Pacific offshore of the coast of Southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Vermont farmers were worried about producing enough hay to get livestock through the winter. The dry weather may affect the quantity and quality of hay that can be grown. Even though it has been dry just a few weeks, field crops and vegetable crops looked stressed. WPTV NB5 Burlington (Vt.), Aug 7, 2025

MD 1898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Central South Dakota to northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072215Z - 080015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail risk through the evening hours. Residual capping and limited storm coverage should preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway along the NE/SD border as deep mixing on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume has eroded inhibition and allowed for convective initiation. Latest mesoanalysis suggests these cells remain in the deeply-mixed environment and should primarily pose a severe wind risk in the near-term given LCLs near 3 km. With time, these cells will migrate east into the deeper moisture where MLCAPE values are in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite the ample buoyancy, stronger capping with eastward extent casts some uncertainty regarding storm longevity through the evening. If updrafts can be sustained through the next couple of hours, they may be able to realize the high-CAPE environment with a substantial uptick in intensity. Deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 knots should support supercellular storm modes with an attendant risk for very large hail. It is uncertain if this ceiling will be realized given the residual capping, potential for early outflow-dominant storms, and recent demise of at least one deeper cell, which limits confidence in the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44810034 44830021 44649985 44299963 43809970 43149992 42600014 42240064 42140115 42160178 42330210 42560225 42970221 43780193 44220168 44520137 44770094 44810034 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

July runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa was 2.0 million acre-feet (MAF), 62% of average. The annual runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa is 19.2 MAF, 75% of average. “Above-normal precipitation occurred in much of the basin, though areas of western Montana and Wyoming continue to be very dry,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “The dry soil moisture, below-normal rainfall in the mountain regions, and below-normal mountain snowpack runoff have led to well below-average reservoir inflows into Fort Peck and Garrison this summer.” Per the July 1 System storage check, navigation flow support continued to be 4,500 cubic feet per second (cfs) below the full-service level. The flow support season length will be a full 8-month season, ending Dec. 1 at the mouth of the Missouri River. Gavins Point Dam releases were currently 23,000 cfs. The six mainstem power plants generated 766 million kWh of electricity in July, compared to the typical energy generation for July is 949 million kWh. The power plants were expected to generate 8.0 billion kWh this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh. US Army Corps of Engineers, Aug 7, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 7 22:00:22 UTC 2025.

MD 1897 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071954Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Uncertainty lingers concerning potential thunderstorm coverage and sustenance into and through 5-7 PM CDT. However, any sustained thunderstorm development may include rapidly intensifying supercells accompanied by a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Along and southeast of a weak baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of air impacted by outflow from now dissipated convective development, boundary-layer air with seasonably high moisture content is becoming characterized by moderate to strong potential instability. This is being supported by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated a broad plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains. Based on latest model output and objective analysis, the northern periphery of the stronger capping may now be north of the surface front, roughly near/northwest of the Dickinson through Garrison and Minot vicinities. However, large-scale scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, a subtle mid-level short wave perturbation, and localized area of enhanced low-level convergence might be sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the initiation of at least isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon. If this occurs, there appears potential for rapid intensification, and the evolution of a large supercell, in the presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow around 500 mb. The environment appears conducive to the potential for large hail, locally damaging surface gusts, and, despite modest low-level hodographs, a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 47540379 48680138 48179986 47190026 46830139 47080353 47540379 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 575 SEVERE TSTM MT 072150Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells are expected to further develop late this afternoon and generally spread east-northeastward across much of eastern Montana through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Miles City MT to 25 miles north northeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 21:27:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 21:21:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 054 WTPZ44 KNHC 072120 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo remains a very small tropical cyclone, though an intensifying one. Deep central convection continues to burst near the center, though the vertical structure of the tropical storm does appear more ragged with evidence that the mid-level vortex is tilted to the southwest of the low-level center. A helpful Metop-B scatterometer pass at 1643 UTC captured the tiny circulation with a max wind retrieval of 44 kt. Assuming this instrument undersampled the peak winds of the small cyclone, the initial intensity is being raised to 50 kt for this advisory, also close to the latest objective ADT estimate. The tropical storm continues to move quite quickly to the northwest, with the motion estimated at 305/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to earlier, where a strong and extensive mid-level ridge parked over northern Mexico should keep Ivo moving quickly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 hours or so. On this forecast track, Ivo will soon begin pulling away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. By this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken some and the guidance also suggests Ivo will start to become more vertically shallow. A combination of these influences should result in a westward turn in the track and a slowdown in the forward motion. The track guidance for this cycle is quite similar to the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, blending the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE. The intensity forecast presents a conundrum this afternoon. Ivo has a small inner core wind field, is over warm 29-30 C ocean waters, and vertical wind shear as diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is low, only 5-10 kt. Ordinarily these variables would suggest that Ivo could undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI), and EC-SHIPS-RI guidance now has a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 h. However, other RI indices are lower, with DTOPS at only 12 percent for the same threshold. There is also evidence that Ivo's structure is not ideal, with current visible satellite imagery suggesting its circulation is tilted southwest with height. This vertical tilt also matches the structure seen in the most recent HAFS-A/B model grids. This may explain why the regional-hurricane models are less aggressive with Ivo's intensification than SHIPS, and only HAFS-B briefly makes Ivo a hurricane. Thus the NHC intensity forecast is not as aggressive as the latest SHIPS guidance, only taking Ivo to a 70 kt hurricane in 24 hours. Thereafter, the storm will cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, which should lead to weakening after 24 hours. Like the previous forecast, Ivo will likely lose its organized deep convection west of Baja California in about 72 hours, where the latest forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the reliable HCCA aid, but is lower than both SHIPS and LGEM aids. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it begins to move away from Mexico by tonight. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 055 WTPZ43 KNHC 072120 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette has been producing a smaller area of deep convection than earlier, as it seems to be struggling a bit with dry air and sea-surface temperatures near 24 C. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMMS range from about 30 to 40 kt. A recent 1914 UTC ASCAT-C pass suggests that Henriette has likely weakened a bit from earlier. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The motion of 280/14 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. This motion will continue through today as Henriette is steered by mid-level ridging well to its north. The cyclone will then round the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge as a large deep-layer trough approaches from the west. These features will cause Henriette to gradually turn toward the northwest in a couple of days. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high through the weekend, and Henriette will not directly impact the Hawaiian Islands. Henriette is expected to continue moving over cool ocean waters near 24C for another 36 h before it begins to gradually move over increasing water temperatures. The tropical storm will also continue moving through a very dry environment. Most of the guidance shows the storm maintaining a 35-40 kt intensity during this time. Henriette is also expected to encounter colder than normal mid- and upper-level temperatures in a couple of days. If Henriette survives the next 48 h or so, then strengthening would appear likely later in the forecast period due to increasing sea-surface temperatures, very low vertical wind shear, and decreasing mid- to upper-level temperatures as the aforementioned deep-layer trough approaches. The official forecast shows some slight weakening in the short term, followed by strengthening to a hurricane by day 4 well to the north of Hawaii. The latest NHC forecast is near the intensity consensus and close to the higher end of the guidance at day 4 and 5. It should be noted that the HAFS models are showing a slightly higher intensity than the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.9N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.3N 139.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.2N 152.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.9N 156.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 7 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071949Z - 072145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon, especially as storms move into eastern Montana. A watch is possible when storm intensity trends become evident. DISCUSSION...A broad area of mid-level ascent is evident on visible satellite imagery in southwestern Montana. This forcing has promoted widely scattered thunderstorms early this afternoon. Mid/upper clouds associated with this band of ascent has so far kept buoyancy rather weak near the terrain. Farther east, surface dewpoints have gradually increased into the low/mid 50s F to mid/upper 60s F near the North Dakota border. Given the strong ascent, it is likely that scattered storms will eventually develop. Lingering MLCIN is present from around Billings eastward. This should erode some with additional afternoon heating. The main point of uncertainty is when storms will intensify. This will probably occur in the next 2-3 hours when storms encounter greater moisture. Strong shear and increasing buoyancy as convection moves east will support a threat for initial supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Temperature-dewpoint spreads are large enough that storms will tend to be outflow dominant and may congeal into one or more clusters. A watch is possible this afternoon, but timing of when this will be needed is not clear. ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45980948 47040947 47780714 47610594 46700476 45970475 45390582 45470810 45980948 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo remains a very small tropical cyclone, though an intensifying one. Deep central convection continues to burst near the center, though the vertical structure of the tropical storm does appear more ragged with evidence that the mid-level vortex is tilted to the southwest of the low-level center. A helpful Metop-B scatterometer pass at 1643 UTC captured the tiny circulation with a max wind retrieval of 44 kt. Assuming this instrument undersampled the peak winds of the small cyclone, the initial intensity is being raised to 50 kt for this advisory, also close to the latest objective ADT estimate. The tropical storm continues to move quite quickly to the northwest, with the motion estimated at 305/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to earlier, where a strong and extensive mid-level ridge parked over northern Mexico should keep Ivo moving quickly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 hours or so. On this forecast track, Ivo will soon begin pulling away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. By this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken some and the guidance also suggests Ivo will start to become more vertically shallow. A combination of these influences should result in a westward turn in the track and a slowdown in the forward motion. The track guidance for this cycle is quite similar to the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, blending the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE. The intensity forecast presents a conundrum this afternoon. Ivo has a small inner core wind field, is over warm 29-30 C ocean waters, and vertical wind shear as diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is low, only 5-10 kt. Ordinarily these variables would suggest that Ivo could undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI), and EC-SHIPS-RI guidance now has a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 h. However, other RI indices are lower, with DTOPS at only 12 percent for the same threshold. There is also evidence that Ivo's structure is not ideal, with current visible satellite imagery suggesting its circulation is tilted southwest with height. This vertical tilt also matches the structure seen in the most recent HAFS-A/B model grids. This may explain why the regional-hurricane models are less aggressive with Ivo's intensification than SHIPS, and only HAFS-B briefly makes Ivo a hurricane. Thus the NHC intensity forecast is not as aggressive as the latest SHIPS guidance, only taking Ivo to a 70 kt hurricane in 24 hours. Thereafter, the storm will cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, which should lead to weakening after 24 hours. Like the previous forecast, Ivo will likely lose its organized deep convection west of Baja California in about 72 hours, where the latest forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the reliable HCCA aid, but is lower than both SHIPS and LGEM aids. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it begins to move away from Mexico by tonight. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette has been producing a smaller area of deep convection than earlier, as it seems to be struggling a bit with dry air and sea-surface temperatures near 24 C. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMMS range from about 30 to 40 kt. A recent 1914 UTC ASCAT-C pass suggests that Henriette has likely weakened a bit from earlier. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The motion of 280/14 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. This motion will continue through today as Henriette is steered by mid-level ridging well to its north. The cyclone will then round the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge as a large deep-layer trough approaches from the west. These features will cause Henriette to gradually turn toward the northwest in a couple of days. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high through the weekend, and Henriette will not directly impact the Hawaiian Islands. Henriette is expected to continue moving over cool ocean waters near 24C for another 36 h before it begins to gradually move over increasing water temperatures. The tropical storm will also continue moving through a very dry environment. Most of the guidance shows the storm maintaining a 35-40 kt intensity during this time. Henriette is also expected to encounter colder than normal mid- and upper-level temperatures in a couple of days. If Henriette survives the next 48 h or so, then strengthening would appear likely later in the forecast period due to increasing sea-surface temperatures, very low vertical wind shear, and decreasing mid- to upper-level temperatures as the aforementioned deep-layer trough approaches. The official forecast shows some slight weakening in the short term, followed by strengthening to a hurricane by day 4 well to the north of Hawaii. The latest NHC forecast is near the intensity consensus and close to the higher end of the guidance at day 4 and 5. It should be noted that the HAFS models are showing a slightly higher intensity than the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.9N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.3N 139.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.2N 152.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.9N 156.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN