Aggregator

WW 576 SEVERE TSTM ND 080100Z - 080800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms will increase this evening initially across northwest/northern North Dakota, and across a broader part of western North Dakota a bit later potentially including areas near/north of the I-94 corridor. Corridors of potentially widespread/locally damaging winds may evolve tonight, along with the potential for very large hail and possibly some tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Williston ND to 35 miles south southeast of Devils Lake ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 575... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across portions of the central to southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move slowly eastward across southern SK and MB, with moderate cyclonic flow aloft moving from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. As this occurs, an upper ridge over the eastern Great Lakes will be move toward southern QB and the Northeast. Well south of the upper low, modest westerlies aloft will remain over the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will move from southern MB into western ON, with a boundary stalling roughly from the upper MS Valley to KS. Ahead of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will remain with 60s and 70s F dewpoints. ...IA into WI and surrounding areas... The leading mid/upper speed max will move across the upper MS Valley relatively early in the day, with midlevel drying across much of MN into western WI. Heating will occur near the stalled front, with robust moisture leading to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by late afternoon. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of residual/midday storms, which could potentially overturn the air mass prematurely. However, in general, southwest low-level flow should maintain areas of moderate instability, with a late day increase in storm coverage and intensity. Corridors of damaging winds appear most probable, with substantial outflow. ...Central High Plains... Surface winds will veer to east/southeast during the day, with 50s F dewpoints backing west toward the Front Range. Steep lapse rates will lead to strong instability, especially from southeast CO west/northwestward. Isolated cells capable of large hail are forecast, with perhaps a brief tornado risk during the evening as low-level SRH increases. Capping and uncertainty in storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more