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WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 03:27:05 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 03:21:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 847 WTPZ43 KNHC 080253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette’s satellite presentation has changed little since the previous advisory, with the low-level center remaining mostly exposed and only a few small, intermittent bursts of deep convection developing near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 28 to 41 kt over the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt for this advisory. Henriette is moving westward, or 280 degrees at 14 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this general motion expected to persist over the next couple of days as the cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn toward the northwest is forecast this weekend and into early next week as Henriette becomes steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast remains in close agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far to the north of Hawaii. Henriette will traverse sea surface temperatures near 24C with mid-level relative humidity below 50 percent during the next 24 to 36 hours. Despite these unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, the cyclone’s well-defined circulation is expected to remain fairly resilient within the prevailing low-shear environment, allowing for occasional pulses of deep convection to persist. As a result, little change in intensity is anticipated in the short term. If Henriette can withstand the period over cooler waters, as has been consistently indicated by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification will likely occur over the weekend and into early next week as sea surface temperatures rise to levels conducive for strengthening. The official forecast continues to reflect intensification, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance envelope, and is most closely aligned with the dynamical intensity consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 094 FOPZ13 KNHC 080252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 145W 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 1(37) X(37) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 589 FOPZ14 KNHC 080250 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 7 16(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 356 WTPZ33 KNHC 080251 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...HENRIETTE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FAR TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 138.4W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 138.4 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend, keeping the center of Henriette well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FAR TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 07 the center of Henriette was located near 19.1, -138.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 184 WTPZ44 KNHC 080251 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 While Ivo has a compact core with a concentrated area of convection, the overall cloud pattern appears disorganized and lacks banding features. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates and in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Some of the associated thunderstorms are brushing the coast of southwestern Mexico, likely bringing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds. Ivo's tropical-storm-force winds remain offshore near the tiny core, and are estimated to only extend about 40 n mi from the center. The storm continues to move quickly to the northwest at 19 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift slightly westward during the next few days. As a result, Ivo is forecast to turn to the west-northwest and then the west with a notable decrease in forward speed. This motion should take Ivo away from mainland Mexico and well south of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The large-scale conditions appear quite favorable for strengthening during the next day or so with warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidities. However, it is possible that Ivo might not take advantage of those conditions given its current ragged structure. There is considerable divergence in the intensity models with the dynamical-statistical aids showing significant strengthening while the global and HAFS guidance show little to no intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one and leans closer to the high end of the guidance in the short term, but this is of low confidence. Regardless of what occurs in the next 24 hours, weakening should begin over the weekend when Ivo is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into an air mass of drier air and stronger shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 182 WTPZ24 KNHC 080251 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 183 WTPZ23 KNHC 080251 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 138.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 138.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 138.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 048 WTPZ34 KNHC 080250 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...IVO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 107.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest are expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ivo is expected to pull away from mainland Mexico and pass well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could become a hurricane on Friday. Weakening should begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán de Ocampo, Colima, and Jalisco through tonight. The additional rainfall may result in localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and are forecast to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Aug 07 the center of Ivo was located near 19.7, -107.3 with movement NW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

MD 1900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Western and northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 080039Z - 080245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a severe threat through the late evening hours across northern North Dakota. Additionally, a developing MCS will propagate along a warm front into central ND through the overnight hours. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, elevated convection has been percolating across northwest ND and eastward along the international border within a low-level warm advection regime. Within the past 30-60 minutes, MRMS and GOES IR imagery have shown an uptick in convective intensity, and surface observations show the development of a deepening cold pool. While recent CAM solutions hint that this activity will diminish in the coming hours, these observations suggest otherwise and fall in line with WoFS guidance that depict an increasing severe wind and hail risk across northern ND through early evening. Further upstream in MT, an MCS is beginning to mature along the I-94 corridor. This system is expected to intensify as it moves into far eastern MT/western ND where MLCAPE is considerably higher. This line is expected to propagate to the east/northeast along a surface warm front noted in recent surface observations, and should continue across ND through the overnight hours. Recent WoFS solutions hint at the potential for 2-3 inch hail with more discrete cells along the international border/northern ND, while winds between 70-90 mph will be possible with the developing MCS. Northeasterly low-level flow on the north side of a surface warm front may allow for adequate low-level SRH for some line-embedded tornado threat but confidence in this threat is limited away from the surface boundary. Regardless, watch issuance is expected to address these threats. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48709718 48149722 47659787 46869994 46210151 45990274 46000360 46250426 46730453 47310459 47760457 48600443 48920433 49080392 49079726 48709718 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more