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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

914
ABNT20 KNHC 071727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the
next day or two, a few hundred miles offshore of North Carolina.
Some tropical or subtropical development is possible this weekend
while the system moves northeastward over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream, off the east coast of the United States. By early next
week, the low is expected to reach colder water and more hostile
conditions, ending its chance for tropical or subtropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more conducive for gradual development in a few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward
across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by
tonight. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the eastern
Pacific offshore of the coast of Southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more