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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 08:46:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 08:46:31 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 955 WTPZ43 KNHC 070846 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 Satellite images indicate that a small burst of deep convection has developed just to the northwest of Henriette’s low-level center this evening, after several hours with not much more than a shallow cloud swirl. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB was 3.0/45 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 32 to 42 kt over the past several hours. A timely 07/0645Z Metop-C ASCAT pass depicted several 40 kt wind barbs, with a single 40–45 kt wind barb noted north of the low-level center. The initial intensity for this advisory will be held at 45 kt, utilizing the ASCAT data while accounting for some undersampling and a known low bias at higher speeds. The cyclone is moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 14 kt. This general motion is expected to persist through Thursday, as Henriette continues to be steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and eventually northwest is anticipated Friday and over the weekend, as an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii begins to erode the western extent of the subtropical ridge. The northwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week. The official track forecast remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Henriette will be moving over gradually cooling sea surface temperatures near 24C, while the environmental humidities surrounding the cyclone will drop below 50 percent. Despite these hostile thermodynamic conditions, Henriette’s well-established circulation is likely to remain resilient due to the low-shear environment the cyclone will be transiting through. As a result, only a slight weakening is forecast tonight, followed by little change in strength during the next few days. If Henriette can survive the passage over the cool waters, as persistently suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification appears likely over the weekend and into early next week as sea surface temperatures warm to levels conducive for strengthening. The official forecast continues to reflect this, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 120 hours. The intensity forecast is mostly unchanged and remains aligned best with the dynamical intensity consensus aid HCCA and the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.4N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 19.1N 139.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.8N 142.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 21.9N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 23.3N 150.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 26.9N 154.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 30.2N 158.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 738 FOPZ14 KNHC 070844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 23(23) 57(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 8( 8) 42(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 22(52) 1(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 472 WTPZ44 KNHC 070844 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo's satellite presentation is that of a storm that is steadily intensifying. Deep convection has been continuously forming while the central deep overcast has been expanding through the evening. However, overnight scatterometer data from 0412 UTC revealed a dubious, at best, low-level circulation. The data suggests that even though the mid-level rotation appears robust, the low-level flow has yet to reflect such organization, likely due to Ivo's rapid forward motion. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest satellite-derived wind data. The motion is estimated to be 295/20 kt. Ivo is racing along the southern side of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so which should keep the tropical cyclone moving parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Around 36 h, Ivo is expected to turn more westward and slow down. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous forecast and lies between the various consensus aids. Ivo is still forecast to steadily strengthen over then next day or so. Moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist environment should provide the necessary conditions for the cyclone to reach hurricane status within the next couple of days. Ivo is expected to cross over cooler waters by 72 h, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. Global models predict increasing shear will separate the cyclone from deep convection and Ivo is now forecast to become post-tropical by 96 h. The official intensity forecast remains at the high end of the model guidance. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. Flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 306 WTPZ34 KNHC 070844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...IVO RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.0W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.0 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). The system is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Mexico during the next day or so and turn westward away from Mexico thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...IVO RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Aug 07 the center of Ivo was located near 15.9, -103.0 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070843 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 34 X 19(19) 17(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 1(28) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070842 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 133.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 45SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 133.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 139.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 142.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.9N 147.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 150.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 154.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.2N 158.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 133.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 133.9W ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 133.9 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight and Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest Friday and over the weekend, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Aug 06 the center of Henriette was located near 18.4, -133.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, with the greatest threat concentrated from northeastern Iowa into central and northeastern Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Saturday, as cyclonically curved southwesterly flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into Iowa, Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate and potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of the front. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. A more persistent convective complex could persist from late afternoon into the evening, with this cluster projected to move east-southeastward across southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa during the early evening. Along this track, MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, and moderate deep-layer shear should be in place. This should be enough for severe storm development. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the more intense line segments. Hail could also occur. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains. Near the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Within this airmass, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. However, isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts of the front as low-level convergence becomes maximized. Due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear, an isolated severe threat could develop. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, with the greatest threat concentrated from northeastern Iowa into central and northeastern Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Saturday, as cyclonically curved southwesterly flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into Iowa, Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate and potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of the front. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. A more persistent convective complex could persist from late afternoon into the evening, with this cluster projected to move east-southeastward across southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa during the early evening. Along this track, MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, and moderate deep-layer shear should be in place. This should be enough for severe storm development. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the more intense line segments. Hail could also occur. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains. Near the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Within this airmass, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. However, isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts of the front as low-level convergence becomes maximized. Due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear, an isolated severe threat could develop. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, with the greatest threat concentrated from northeastern Iowa into central and northeastern Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Saturday, as cyclonically curved southwesterly flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into Iowa, Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate and potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of the front. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. A more persistent convective complex could persist from late afternoon into the evening, with this cluster projected to move east-southeastward across southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa during the early evening. Along this track, MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, and moderate deep-layer shear should be in place. This should be enough for severe storm development. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the more intense line segments. Hail could also occur. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains. Near the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Within this airmass, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. However, isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts of the front as low-level convergence becomes maximized. Due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear, an isolated severe threat could develop. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/07/2025 Read more