Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
Thursday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located about 150 miles offshore
the coast of Southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Bucci

Reservoir storage levels in the Yakima Basin have fallen to their lowest since record-keeping began in 1971, leaving irrigators grappling with severe drought conditions. Junior water rights holders in the Yakima Basin were projected to receive only 40% of their estimated water allotment this year. Senior water rights holders will still receive their full allotment. As of August 1st, reservoir storage was at 39% capacity, holding just under 415,000 acre-feet of water, which is 55% of the average. KIMA-TV (Yakima, Wash.), Aug 7, 2025 Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water rights will receive 40% of their full allotments as the bureau updated its outlook on July 30 while warning that the water supply could fall as low as 35%. The next forecast update will be Aug. 7. At 40% of a full allotment, the water shortage rivals the record low 37% that supply irrigators received in 1994 and 2001. Irrigators with senior water rights that were issued before 1905 will still get 100% of their requested water, while junior water rights holders have gotten less than a full allotment for the past three summers. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), July 31, 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water-rights would get 43% of their full water allotments, the lowest percentage in 20 years. The Reclamation Bureau will update its outlook in mid-June and projects the water supply could drop to as low as 34% of normal. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), June 5, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:42:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 03:32:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:36:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 03:27:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:42:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:42:59 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 183 WTPZ44 KNHC 070240 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 Ivo's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized but the convective banding features are not yet well defined. Very cold cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder are evident, primarily over the northern portion of the circulation. The upper-level outflow pattern is fairly well defined over the system, but outflow is restricted over the northeastern quadrant. The current intensity estimate is kept at 35 kt for now, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and most objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Blending center fixes from SAB and TAFB give a swift west-northwestward motion of around 295/19 kt, as in the previous advisory. There is a strong 500 mb high situated to the north of Ivo, which is predicted to remain in place for the next couple of days. This should keep the tropical cyclone on a west-northwestward track, parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Beyond 24-36 hours, Ivo should turn a bit to the left with decreasing forward speed while moving away from Mexico. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus. For the next couple of days, Ivo should be in an environment of moderate vertical shear, fairly warm waters and high low- to mid-level humidity. Therefore strengthening is likely and the system is predicted to become a hurricane by late this week. Later in the forecast period, the system should be traversing cooler waters which is likely to reduce the cyclone to a remnant low in 5 days. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 182 WTPZ24 KNHC 070240 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 444 FOPZ14 KNHC 070239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) 13(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 31(31) 17(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 15(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 33(43) 2(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 998 WTPZ34 KNHC 070239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...IVO BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 100.9W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.9 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). The system is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move away from Mexico thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan and southwestern Oaxaca through Saturday. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...IVO BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Aug 06 the center of Ivo was located near 15.0, -100.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:36:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:36:45 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...HENRIETTE HEADING WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 132.4W ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 132.4 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight and Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest Friday and over the weekend, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE HEADING WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Aug 06 the center of Henriette was located near 18.2, -132.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 550 WTPZ43 KNHC 070234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 Henriette’s satellite presentation has deteriorated since the previous advisory, with the cyclone now nearly devoid of all deep convection and the low-level center fully exposed. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 3.0/45 kt from TAFB, while SAB deemed the cyclone too weak to classify. Meanwhile, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 37 to 51 kt over the past several hours. An earlier 06/1755Z Metop-C ASCAT pass depicted numerous 40 kt wind barbs, with a single 40–45 kt wind barb noted north of the low-level center. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory is maintained, at perhaps a generous, 45 kt. The cyclone is moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 14 kt. This general motion is expected to persist tonight and Thursday, as Henriette continues to be steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and eventually northwest is expected to begin Friday and continue through the weekend, as an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii begins to erode the western extent of the subtropical ridge. The official track forecast remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is largely unchanged from the previous advisory. There is high confidence that the center of Henriette will remain far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Henriette will be moving over gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, lowering to near 24C, while mid-level relative humidity also falls below 50 percent. Despite these marginal thermodynamic conditions, Henriette’s well-established circulation is likely to remain resilient due to the low-shear environment the cyclone will be transiting through. As a result, only slight weakening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, followed by little change in strength through 72 hours. If Henriette can survive the passage over the cooler waters, as has been advertised by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification appears likely over the weekend and into early next week as sea surface temperatures warm to levels conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast reflects this, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 120 hours. The intensity forecast is mostly unchanged and remains closely aligned with the dynamical intensity guidance aid HCCA and the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.2N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 18.3N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.7N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.2N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 143.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.1N 146.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.5N 149.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 25.5N 153.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 29.0N 157.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 536 WTPZ23 KNHC 070233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.7N 137.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.2N 141.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 143.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.1N 146.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 153.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 157.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 132.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota, this evening into late tonight. ...Eastern WY/southeast MT into western/central SD/northwest NE... A favorable conditional environment remains in place this evening from eastern WY/far southeast MT into western SD/northwest NE, with moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 40-50 kt. However, large-scale ascent is generally weak, and storms that developed across far eastern WY have been very isolated and relatively slow to intensify. A severe storm or two remains possible through the evening, with a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts. Isolated strong to severe storm development also cannot be ruled out this evening across central SD, in the vicinity of diffuse surface boundary. ...Northern MN... Strong storms have developed this evening across southeast MB, in the vicinity of a surface trough. Stronger large-scale ascent and greater storm coverage are expected to remain north of the international border, but development of an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through dusk across northwest MN, within a moderately buoyant environment. ...Eastern NE/SD into IA/northern MO/northeast KS late tonight... Elevated convection may develop late tonight from eastern NE/western IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates, and modestly favorable effective shear could support at least transient storm organization. One or two southeastward-moving clusters may develop overnight within this regime, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to locally damaging gusts. ...Central/eastern MT into western ND late tonight... Elevated convection may increase overnight from central into northeast MT, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Moisture and elevated buoyancy will initially be modest, though small hail and gusty winds could accompany these storms overnight. There is some potential for this convection to intercept greater moisture/instability across northeast MT very late in the period, though at this time it appears that organized-severe potential may remain limited until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota, this evening into late tonight. ...Eastern WY/southeast MT into western/central SD/northwest NE... A favorable conditional environment remains in place this evening from eastern WY/far southeast MT into western SD/northwest NE, with moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 40-50 kt. However, large-scale ascent is generally weak, and storms that developed across far eastern WY have been very isolated and relatively slow to intensify. A severe storm or two remains possible through the evening, with a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts. Isolated strong to severe storm development also cannot be ruled out this evening across central SD, in the vicinity of diffuse surface boundary. ...Northern MN... Strong storms have developed this evening across southeast MB, in the vicinity of a surface trough. Stronger large-scale ascent and greater storm coverage are expected to remain north of the international border, but development of an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through dusk across northwest MN, within a moderately buoyant environment. ...Eastern NE/SD into IA/northern MO/northeast KS late tonight... Elevated convection may develop late tonight from eastern NE/western IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates, and modestly favorable effective shear could support at least transient storm organization. One or two southeastward-moving clusters may develop overnight within this regime, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to locally damaging gusts. ...Central/eastern MT into western ND late tonight... Elevated convection may increase overnight from central into northeast MT, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Moisture and elevated buoyancy will initially be modest, though small hail and gusty winds could accompany these storms overnight. There is some potential for this convection to intercept greater moisture/instability across northeast MT very late in the period, though at this time it appears that organized-severe potential may remain limited until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 08/07/2025 Read more

226
ABPZ20 KNHC 062312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
Thursday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a couple hundred miles offshore the coast of
Southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

High winds and extreme drought conditions in northwest Colorado have driven the rapid growth of two wildfires this week near Meeker in Rio Blanco County. The Lee Fire, west of Meeker, nearly doubled in size Tuesday, August 5, and has burned 22,497 acres, mostly on Bureau of Land Management land south of Colorado Highway 13. About 20 miles to the east, the Elk Fire was estimated at 8,304 acres. Both fires were believed to have been started by lightning strikes on Aug. 2. Colorado Newsline (Denver), Aug 6, 2025