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No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 6 22:32:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST WY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Areas affected...Western SD...northeast WY...and far southeast MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062225Z - 070000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated risk of large hail and locally severe gusts may persist for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated/cellular thunderstorms are evolving in the vicinity of the Black Hills, where an axis of middle/upper 50s dewpoints and diurnal heating have yielded weak surface-based buoyancy (per modified 18Z UNR and RAP soundings). While buoyancy is somewhat marginal, an elongated/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of effective shear) should promote transient convective organization/supercellular structure. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany any longer-lived cells. However, minimal large-scale ascent (or even slight midlevel height rises) should keep the severe risk isolated/localized and brief. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44640241 44240268 44030332 44140411 44370500 44480533 44700555 44990556 45370523 45570470 45590413 45440325 45220265 44970240 44640241 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 6 21:34:02 UTC 2025.

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Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 20:56:32 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062054 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 Henriette continues along with little change in its structure. Like 6 h ago, it is producing a relatively small area of deep convection, with cold cloud tops present mostly to the north of its low-level center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds just above 40 kt, which supports maintaining the intensity at 45 kt for this advisory, after accounting for undersampling. The scatterometer data was also helpful with identifying the exact position of Henriette's center, which was slightly south of previous estimates. No significant change was made to the NHC track forecast outside a slight southward adjustment based on the initial position estimate in the short term. Henriette is moving westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep ridge centered over the northern east Pacific. In a few days, a trough approaching from the west will turn Henriette toward the northwest, taking the tropical cyclone north of Hawaii. The various deterministic and global ensemble models are all in good agreement on the forecast, so confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. The tropical storm is still forecast to slowly weaken during the next few days while it moves over cool SSTs near 24C. However, once Henriette moves north of Hawaii, it will move over warmer waters. Upper-level difluent flow associated with a mid-latitude trough to the northwest may also provide additional support for intensification. As a result, most of the dynamical models forecast strengthening to occur near the end of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast reflects this and is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 22.0N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Santos/D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 135 FOPZ14 KNHC 062054 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 65(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 3(42) X(42) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 130 WTPZ44 KNHC 062054 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 One-minute GOES-E visible imagery, microwave imagery and scatterometer data from this morning indicate that the disturbance south of Mexico has become much better organized. The system has developed banding features, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak analysis shows a Final-T of 2.0. The ASCAT data showed peak winds between 30-35 kt, so advisories have been initiated on Tropical Storm Ivo, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Ivo has a relatively small circulation, but it's embedded within a fairly large area of deep convection. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that wind shear could be a limiting factor for Ivo's intensity during the next couple of days, but the tropical storm is in an otherwise conducive environment for strengthening. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus and shows Ivo reaching hurricane strength within the next couple of days, but there is about 30 kt of spread in the intensity guidance, both above and below the official forecast. Ivo is moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest near 19 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Ivo parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days. The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend, causing Ivo to move at a slower forward speed, but by then Ivo will reach cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. That should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken and turn westward, steered primarily by low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, very close to HCCA throughout the 5-day period. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 136 FOPZ13 KNHC 062054 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER SANTOS/D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 073 WTPZ34 KNHC 062053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM IVO FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ROUGH SURF WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 99.1W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 99.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to move generally parallel, but offshore of the coast of Mexico during the couple of days, and then turn westward, moving further from land. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated for the next couple of days. Ivo is forecast to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan and southwestern Oaxaca through Saturday. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...TROPICAL STORM IVO FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ROUGH SURF WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Aug 06 the center of Ivo was located near 14.2, -99.1 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 074 WTPZ33 KNHC 062053 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 131.3W ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 131.3 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Henriette is then forecast to start a more northwestward turn, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Santos/D. Zelinsky

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 06 the center of Henriette was located near 18.1, -131.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 067 WTPZ24 KNHC 062053 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 99.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 068 WTPZ23 KNHC 062053 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 130.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 147.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 156.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 131.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER SANTOS/D. ZELINSKY

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more