National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232334
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:24:26 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 589 WTNT44 KNHC 232034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is now producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms, and the low-level circulation is gradually becoming less well defined. The depression should decay to a remnant low during the next several hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which again is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 170/6. Chantal or its remnants should turn southwest and west during the next 24-48 hours as the subtropical ridge re-forms north and east of the system. After that, a slow motion toward the northwest is expected before the system dissipates completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 36.0N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 232033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 232033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 40.8W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery shows no organized shower activity associated with Chantal, and the system is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area this evening. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 36.0, -40.8 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has
formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300
miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231504 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous. A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 155/6. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the previous advisory. The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise half loop before the system dissipates. Like its predecessor, the new forecast track lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 15:24:23 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231434 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 40.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 40.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Chantal is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CHANTAL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 36.6, -40.8 with movement SSE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is
located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern
coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily
northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over
the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit
development during that time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back
over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves
from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and
southern and central Florida through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development
of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves
generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 08:39:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 09:24:23 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230838 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal's convection has become quite meager, with small intermittent bursts continuing mainly to the east of the center. Given the decreasing convective organization, Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB are down to 1.5, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 25 kt. Large-scale subsidence and a very dry air mass are making it harder and harder for Chantal to maintain organized deep convection, and it's likely that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low within the next 24 hours. Each of the global models shows the remnant low hanging around for various periods of time, but the official forecast continues to show dissipation in 72 hours, which is in closest agreement with the ECMWF model. Chantal is moving southeastward, or 140/7 kt. High pressure in the lower levels of the atmosphere is expected to jump from the southwest to the northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days, which will cause the depression/remnant low to move slowly southward and then westward before dissipating. The latest track guidance (and thus the official forecast) shows a more sweeping curved trajectory than before, but in the grand scheme of things the change is not that significant. The new NHC forecast generally lies between the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 37.1N 40.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL WEAKENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 40.9W ABOUT 765 MI...1225 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Chantal is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CHANTAL WEAKENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 37.1, -40.9 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 111 FONT14 KNHC 230838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230837 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230535
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 850 miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and
Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas. The system is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend
primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which
should limit development during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves
back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg