National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 55.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued on Monday for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 55.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.7, -55.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252334 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 54.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto

...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.6, -54.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 23:34:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:24:36 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 300 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has changed little
in organization this evening. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:07:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:24:36 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 252105 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 While still looking a bit ragged, convection has continued to increase near the center of Dorian since the last advisory, and a just-received SSMI/S overpass shows a convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the center. Various Dvorak-based objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, while recent microwave-based estimates are in the 45-60 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion remains 280/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, with a more northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model guidance has not shifted much since the previous advisory. However, some of the normally reliable models are in disagreement. The ECMWF and GFS keep Dorian weaker and farther south, and they are on the left side of the guidance envelope. The HWRF and UKMET have more northerly tracks, and forecast Dorian to pass near Puerto Rico and then near or north of Hispaniola. The various consensus models are between these extremes, and the earlier forecast is now close to them. Thus, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast, and it calls for Dorian to move through the Windward Islands between 36-48 h and cross Hispaniola between 96-120 h. Dorian still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the somewhat ragged convective pattern. This entrainment is expected to continue sporadically for the next 2-3 days, and this could slow intensification despite an environment of light to moderate shear. The intensity guidance is split on how much intensification could occur during this time. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models showing more intensification and forecast Dorian to become a hurricane. On the dynamical side, the latest HWRF run shows little development, and the GFS/ECMWF keep the system weak to the point where it degenerates into a tropical wave before reaching Hispaniola. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the statistical-dynamical models, but shows less intensification out of respect for the dynamical models. The intensity forecast becomes even lower confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in how much shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls for Dorian to weaken to a depression due to passage over Hispaniola. However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over the island. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches. 3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.5N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 523 FONT15 KNHC 252104 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 11(41) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 1(31) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 7(35) X(35) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 3(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 45(62) X(62) X(62) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 35(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 35(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 27(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 8( 8) 63(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BARBADOS 50 X 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252104 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENING... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada and its dependencies. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORIAN STRENGTHENING... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.5, -54.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 252059 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 54.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251741
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an
elongated low pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better
defined. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this
afternoon was canceled. However, another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Monday, if necessary. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 17:41:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:24:34 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251740 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 53.4W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 53.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.3, -53.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:52:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:24:34 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding. However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the track may be required on the next advisory if the current model trends continue. While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over Hispaniola. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 251448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) 1(30) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 2(57) X(57) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 52.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN