National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 262055 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 Dorian's convective pattern has waxed and waned this afternoon due to intrusions of dry mid-level air while the upper-level outflow pattern has continued to expand and become more symmetrical. Although the inner-core convection has decreased recently, a recent burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped just north of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt based on a an average of satellite intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 61 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Dorian by 0000 UTC this evening, and will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains in very agreement that Dorian will move west-northwestward across the central Lesser Antilles tonight and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the edge of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located well to the north. On Wednesday, Dorian should turn northwestward into a small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north, causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is just an extension of the previous one since the latest model guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around the previous track forecast. The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma. The majority of the environmental conditions support at least steady strengthening, with the main hindrance being the very dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone and occasionally being entrained into Dorian's inner-core region. The small but robust circulation should continue mix out the brief dry air intrusions, but when an eyewall will form is still uncertain. Given that Dorian will be moving into the convective maximum period later tonight, the intensity forecast still calls for Dorian be near hurricane strength when it passes through the Windward Islands. Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions. Most of the global models along with the statistical- dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are possible in St. Lucia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. 3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola tonight or Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase. 4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 20:41:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 21:24:53 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 262040 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 23(43) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 18(46) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 4(49) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) 1(50) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 9(52) X(52) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 15(60) X(60) X(60) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 32(58) X(58) X(58) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 40(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 29(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 1 10(11) 74(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 64 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 1 20(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 3 47(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MARTINIQUE 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 56 41(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT LUCIA 50 27 39(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 14 21(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GRENADA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 262040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 58.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required tonight or Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that Dorian remains a compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 12.7, -58.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 262039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * PUERTO RICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 58.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 20:39:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 21:31:58 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 262038 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure that has been tracked across the western Atlantic the past several days has become better defined during the past 24 hours. The associated convection, which is located well to the southeast of the low-level center due to shear, has also become more persistent and organized into a band today. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial wind speed has been set at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. There were a few 35-kt vectors in the ASCAT-A overpass but those data appeared to be rain-inflated. The depression is currently located over warm water but within an environment of moderate westerly shear, which is likely to continue during the next day or so. Although some slight strengthening is forecast, the shear is likely to prohibit significant deepening during that time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while the system moves northeastward and some modest strengthening is anticipated. Later in the period, an approaching mid-latitude trough may also help to strengthen the cyclone due to baroclinic processes, and the system is forecast to become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 080/2 kt. The depression is forecast to drift eastward or northeastward during the next day or so as it remains in an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. As the aforementioned mid-latitude trough approaches the northeastern United States on Wednesday, it should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward well east of the east coast of the United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, but there are some differences in how fast it will be ejected northeastward. The NHC track forecast leans toward the slower ECMWF solution during the first day or so, then closer to the consensus aids later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 262038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 262038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 72.5W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 72.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow eastward or northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so. The cyclone is expected to begin to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday, and this general motion should continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will remain well east of the east coast of the United States. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 the center of Six was located near 31.7, -72.5 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 262037 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 17:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:24:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261738 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 58.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 12.5, -58.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, which is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure area
located about 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
has become better defined since yesterday, and is producing winds to
near tropical storm force well southeast of its center. The
associated thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of
organization. Conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form
later today while the system moves slowly northeastward well
offshore of the United States east coast. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:03:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:24:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261500 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian's convective and outflow pattern have continued to improve, with a narrow poleward outflow channel now apparent in water vapor images. Passive microwave imagery has shown a persistent low-level eye-like feature along with an intermittent mid-level eyewall forming that quickly erodes due to mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 56 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. Dorian is expected to continue moving west-northwestward today through Tuesday night as the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday, Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX. The intensity forecast is less straight-forward than the track forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry mid-level air surrounding and occasionally being entrained into Dorian's inner-core region, would favor at least steady strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, SSTs of at least 29C, and the small overall circulation and inner-core wind field. The recent development of a poleward outflow channel and possible development of an equatorward channel would also support strengthening. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall, only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Windward Islands. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward form the previous advisory, but is not as high as the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is of very low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are also possible in portions of the Windward Islands, and a hurricane watch has been issued for St. Lucia. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands. 3. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required later today. 4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.3N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...NERN HISPANIOLA 96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 389 FONT15 KNHC 261446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 7(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 2(45) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 23(54) 1(55) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) X(43) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) X(56) X(56) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 1(53) X(53) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 16(53) X(53) X(53) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 41(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 70(72) 15(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) AVES 50 X X( X) 35(35) 16(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AVES 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOMINICA 34 1 16(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) DOMINICA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 1 58(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MARTINIQUE 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 92(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 44(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BARBADOS 50 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BARBADOS 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 57.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued by the government of St. Lucia for St. Lucia. The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart