National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.3, -62.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 62.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:35:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 21:31:39 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272034 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 After a brief period when the center was near the edge of the convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a larger trough. The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting of the center from the edge of the convection during the past several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel consensus TVCA and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.8N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 272034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 272033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 71.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 344 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 71.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 272033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 71.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 344 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 71.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), but the cyclone should begin to move generally northward and then northeastward on Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, but it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics and weaken on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.8, -71.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are diminishing over the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.0, -62.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 17:49:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:24:57 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271709
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located almost 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low. For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant development in the short term. However, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. 3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken while digging southeastward across the central Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low. For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant development in the short term. However, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. 3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 14:39:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:24:57 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 271438 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 33(51) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 14(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 41(51) 1(52) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 12(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 49(55) 1(56) X(56) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 62(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 9(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 8( 9) 26(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 34 1 20(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 71 22(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) AVES 50 12 24(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AVES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 14.2, -61.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISUSED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 61.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 14:35:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:32:02 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271434 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The cloud pattern has improved a little since yesterday, and in fact, it looks more tropical on satellite today. The depression, however, continues to be sheared with the low-level center to the north of the convection. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear currently affecting the depression is expected to continue, and only a small increase in intensity is anticipated in the next couple of days. After that time, the shear will increase as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west, and the circulation will be over cooler waters. This should favor the cyclone to become extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has been moving very little, and it appears that during the past couple hours it has been meandering northward at about 2 kt. No significant motion is expected today with a slow north-northwestward or northward drift beginning tonight. In about a day, the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multimodel consensus TVCA and not significantly different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.2N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 31.3N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 32.9N 71.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 35.0N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 44.5N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila