National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 261445 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W...NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 57.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little
better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while
the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the
United States east coast. The reconnaissance aircraft mission for
today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 11:40:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 09:24:34 GMT

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261138 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 57.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as early as later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 57.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and Wednesday while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in Barbados and the Windward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 600 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 260956 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 600 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS... The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 56.7W ABOUT 200 MI...330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 12.3, -57.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 08:52:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 09:24:34 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however, suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like Dorian are often challenging to predict. Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches. 3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 260847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 1(42) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 24(42) X(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 2(38) X(38) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 31(39) 1(40) X(40) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 1(28) X(28) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 24(39) 1(40) X(40) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 55(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 1 9(10) 44(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MARTINIQUE 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 35(36) 44(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 25(26) 25(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 2 81(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARBADOS 50 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BARBADOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as early as later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in Barbados and the Windward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 11.9, -56.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 56.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 55.8W ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is a compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 11.8, -55.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 05:32:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:24:32 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form today or Tuesday while the
system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern
United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North
Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 02:37:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:24:32 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 260237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 3(44) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) X(43) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) X(34) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) X(33) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) X(27) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 16(70) X(70) X(70) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 4( 4) 44(48) 5(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 5( 5) 74(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 5( 5) 55(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 1 75(76) 12(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARBADOS 50 X 28(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BARBADOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRENADA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon, with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola. Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty associated with this forecast. The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12. Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge. The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus, HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches. 3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.7N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 55.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO