National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270527 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 60.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles through the morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 13.2, -60.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 05:27:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 03:24:49 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located just west of Barbados and heading toward the
Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located a few hundred miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 02:45:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 03:24:49 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270244 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong. Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3 to 5. Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north, but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track due to uncertainties. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. 3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase. 4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 24.0N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 270243 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 32(45) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 11(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 7(48) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 2(49) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 14(54) X(54) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) 1(19) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 2(47) X(47) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) X(35) X(35) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 6(60) X(60) X(60) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 22(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 7(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 1 71(72) 16(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) AVES 50 X 24(24) 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) AVES 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 5 18(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 59 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MARTINIQUE 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 79 3(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT LUCIA 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT LUCIA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270243 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 24.0N 74.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...DORIAN JUST PASSED VERY NEAR TO BARBADOS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 59.7W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required early Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 59.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported in Barbados. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DORIAN JUST PASSED VERY NEAR TO BARBADOS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 13.2, -59.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 02:41:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 03:31:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270239 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge of the cyclone's deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern quadrant. The low level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters. This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the cyclone. After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger system embedded in the westerlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 31.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270239 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 72.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is expected to meander through Tuesday before accelerating northeastward Tuesday night through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 the center of Six was located near 31.5, -72.2 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 00:00:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 21:24:53 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 262357 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...DORIAN NEARING BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required tonight or Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 59.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands early Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DORIAN NEARING BARBADOS... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 13.0, -59.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

521
ABNT20 KNHC 262328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, which is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six, located a few hundred miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch