National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 02:35:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 03:24:23 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230234 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to survive the harsh thermodynamic and shear environment of the central Atlantic by producing intermittent small bursts of deep convection well to the east of the exposed surface center. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB this evening, and the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. Large-scale sinking air with low to mid-level associated relative humidities less than 40 percent along with increasing west-southwesterly vertical shear are expected to weaken Chantal to a remnant low by Saturday, and dissipate in less than 3 days. The initial motion is estimated to be southeastward, or 135/6 kt, around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The global and ensemble guidance continue to show an anti-cyclonic motion at a slower forward speed before the system dissipates over the weekend. The new NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a compromise of the NOAA HCCA model and the simple TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 37.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 230233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 41.9W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 41.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to slowly make a clockwise loop through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 37.8, -41.9 with movement SE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 21:24:24 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and current satellite intensity estimates. While the cyclone continues to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. There is no change to the previous intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h. The initial motion is now 110/12. A building low- to mid-level ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents. The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.1N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 523 FONT14 KNHC 222031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 42.4W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 42.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and it is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CHANTAL NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 38.1, -42.4 with movement ESE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 18:59:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:24:32 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Bahamas has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development is possible during the next
several days while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the
southeastern coast of the United States. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
southern Florida peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221434 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt. The cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear. However, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating completely by 96 h. The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 38.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 36.6N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 221433 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221432 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 43.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 43.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.7N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.6N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL MOVING SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 43.8W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 43.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CHANTAL MOVING SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 38.8, -43.8 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.