National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 14:36:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:24:32 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

A trough of low pressure located over the central and northwestern
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development is possible by this weekend or early next week
while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida peninsula at
5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the southeastern coast
of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 08:43:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 09:24:28 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220842 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a day or two. However, there is abundant dry air around the system, and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday. Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before, or 100/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.1N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220842 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220842 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 45.7W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 39.1, -45.7 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A trough of low pressure located over the central Bahamas is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development is possible by this weekend or early next week while
the system moves slowly northwestward toward the Florida peninsula
at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the southeastern
coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 02:33:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 03:24:28 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner, and is based primarily on the deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16 kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 254 WTNT24 KNHC 220232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 255 WTNT34 KNHC 220232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 47.4W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 47.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward Friday night then drift clock-wise southwestward to west-northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 39.4, -47.4 with movement ESE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

414
ABNT20 KNHC 212309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cape Race, Newfoundland.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 20:34:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 21:24:24 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data. The cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few days. This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant low by Friday. Given the current appearance of the system, loss of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur much sooner than earlier anticipated. This is in good agreement with the latest HWRF model run. The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is likely to turn northwestward to northward. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.8N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 212033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...DISORGANIZED CHANTAL LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 49.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 49.1 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch