National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 56.2W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.2 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 20 the center of Chantal was located near 40.2, -56.2 with movement E at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210204
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds. As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC). This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system is located almost 400 miles southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia. While the associated thunderstorm activity
shows signs of organization, recent satellite wind data indicates
the system does not currently have a well-defined circulation.
Significant development of this low is unlikely as it moves eastward
at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

$$
Forecaster Beven

591
ABNT20 KNHC 201141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located more than 300 miles south of Halifax,
Nova Scotia, continues to produce an area of thunderstorms east of
the center. Significant development of this low is unlikely as it
moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the United States and
Canada. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200514
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located more than 300 miles
south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, continues to produce a
small area of thunderstorms northeast of the center. Significant
development of this low is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to
20 mph, away from the United States and Canada. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles southeast of
Cape Cod, Massachusetts, is producing a small area of thunderstorm
activity northeast of the center. Significant development of this
system is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from
the United States. Additional information on this low can be in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, is producing some
disorganized shower activity. Significant development of this
system is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a low
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of
Nantucket, Massachusetts. Significant development of this system
is now unlikely as it moves east-northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

860
ABNT20 KNHC 190526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity has increased this morning near and to the
northeast of a well-defined low pressure system located more than
200 miles east-northeast of Norfolk, Virginia. There is still a
slight chance for significant organization to occur through today
while the system moves northeastward away from the United States.
Environmental conditions are expected become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182335
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about 100 miles east of Norfolk,
Virginia, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
This low is moving northeastward, away from the United States, and
has only a slight chance to significantly organize through Monday
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181709
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system near the North Carolina Outer Banks is moving
into the Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development while the system moves
northeastward to east-northeastward, and away from the U.S. east
coast, during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located over eastern North Carolina is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical
development today is expected to be limited due to the system's
proximity to land. By tonight, the low is expected to move
northeastward over the Atlantic, where some further organization
could occur before the system encounters cooler waters in a day or
so. The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of flash flooding in coastal portions of North Carolina
through this evening. Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located along the North Carolina coast
near Wilmington is producing a compact area of showers and
thunderstorms. Any tropical development today is expected to be
limited due to the system's proximity to land. By Sunday night, the
low is expected to move northeastward over the warmer Atlantic
waters offshore of the Outer Banks, where some further organization
could occur before the system encounters cooler waters on Tuesday.
The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of
flash flooding in coastal portions of South and North Carolina
through this evening. Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located along the South Carolina coast
about midway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Tropical development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur tonight and Sunday due
to proximity to land as the disturbance moves northeastward along or
near the coast of the Carolinas. By early Monday, however, the low
is expected to move over the warmer Atlantic waters, where some
further organization could occur. The low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in eastern
portions of South and North Carolina through Sunday. Please see
products from your local National Weather Service office or the
Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171705
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough is producing a band of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The shower
activity is currently most concentrated near a small area of low
pressure located along the trough near the South Carolina coast.
Tropical development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow as
the disturbance moves northeastward along the eastern coast of the
United States with increasing forward speed during the few days.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico and northeastern Florida are associated with a weak surface
trough. Tropical development of this system, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near
the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during
the next few days. Regardless of development, the disturbance is
forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash
flooding in that region. Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170514
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico and northeastern Florida are associated with a weak surface
trough. Any tropical development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next few days while it moves northeastward
at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South and North Carolina.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake