National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...IAN FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 the center of Ian was located near 28.9, -80.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 16:29:21 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:53:48 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:02:18 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 291500 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 12(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 22(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 23(24) 38(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 7( 7) 37(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 17(17) 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 31(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 34(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) SURF CITY NC 34 9 45(54) 10(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 46(50) 17(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 43(74) 7(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 5 51(56) 28(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) FLORENCE SC 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 32 46(78) 10(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 40 44(84) 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 43 47(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 67 27(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 29(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 71 21(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 31(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 18(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable. Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave trough moving southward across the southern United States should turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with the latest consensus guidance. Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center approaches the coast. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina is expected through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SC...AND FOR THE NEUSE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK... NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * NEUSE RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......360NE 120SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...330NE 130SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:38:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:29:09 GMT

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of Eleven was located near 19.1, -37.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 291437 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 37.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 37.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.6N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 37.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 023 WTNT34 KNHC 281758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key * Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 82.3 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph (151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 mph (203 km/h), A Weatherflow station at Tarpon Point recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h). The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Altamaha Sound to South Santee River ...3-5 ft * St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft * Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian moves onshore. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward through the day. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday through late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east coast and should spread northward through the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic U.S. later this week through the weekend. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially across east central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 17:58:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 15:22:53 GMT

402
ABNT20 KNHC 281739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located very near the coast of southwestern Florida, and on
newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 26.6, -82.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 16:35:01 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 16:01:55 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 281503 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 14(21) 23(44) 1(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 18(28) 22(50) 1(51) X(51) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 18(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 11(20) 18(38) 1(39) X(39) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 13(18) 13(31) 17(48) 6(54) X(54) X(54) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 18(23) 16(39) 16(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 16(21) 9(30) 7(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 23 33(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 37 42(79) 8(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 25(29) 11(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 9(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 34 77 15(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) THE VILLAGES 50 11 34(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) THE VILLAGES 64 3 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 87 11(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 25 50(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ORLANDO FL 64 5 38(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) COCOA BEACH FL 34 75 18(93) 1(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) COCOA BEACH FL 50 8 32(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 2 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 76 17(93) 1(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PATRICK AFB 50 9 33(42) 5(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) PATRICK AFB 64 2 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 78 10(88) X(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) FT PIERCE FL 50 7 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 65 9(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 50 7(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FT LAUDERDALE 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MIAMI FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 29 5(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 64 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 83 6(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) TAMPA FL 64 28 13(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 34 59 13(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) APALACHICOLA 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281502 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24...RETRANSMITTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET...FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS * SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS * FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG PINE KEY * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 300SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...310NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 82.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 14:58:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281458 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this advisory. Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across central Florida. 4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake