National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 the center of Karl was located near 22.0, -94.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall
is also expected over portions of southern Mexico during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en
route to investigate the system, and interests in southwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some development of
this system is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday when the system
moves slowly west-northwestard to northwestward over the far
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing upper-level winds should
prevent significant development late this week. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is expected over portions of southern
Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 013 WTNT33 KNHC 091746 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, with a slightly slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening. Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -86.2 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2022 17:46:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2022 15:22:34 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091712
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located inland over Nicaragua.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022 000 FONT13 KNHC 091442 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BLUEFIELDS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANAGUA 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MANAGUA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S SALVADOR 34 1 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) TEGUCIGALPA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUATEMALA CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091442 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Julia continues to move westward across Nicaragua with a well-defined circulation and deep convection persisting near the center. The terrain of southern and central Nicaragua is not as rugged as areas farther north in Central America, and Julia is probably only gradually weakening while it crosses land. Based on a typical decay rate, and interpolating from the previous forecast, Julia is now estimated to be a 60-kt tropical storm. Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to propel the storm quickly westward (270 degrees) at about 13 kt, and that motion should continue today, with Julia's center expected to move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by this evening. By tonight and Monday, Julia is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and move very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. The model trackers lose Julia in a day or two and instead show a potential track farther offshore by keying in on a broader circulation farther west that is associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. However, global model fields, in particular the GFS and ECWMF, show Julia's smaller circulation more closely hugging the Pacific coast of Central America, and the updated NHC track forecast more closely follows that scenario. Additional weakening is expected today while Julia continues moving over land, but the cyclone should still be at tropical storm strength when it moves offshore this evening. In keeping with the GFS and ECMWF solutions, Julia's contracting circulation is forecast to weaken further over the Pacific waters, coincident with an increase in easterly shear. Based on the latest forecast, Julia is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and then dissipate by Monday night while moving close to the coast of Guatemala. Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone, the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Since Julia's low-level circulation is expected to survive its passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Nicaragua today and reaches the adjacent Pacific waters this evening. Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas later today through Monday. Tropical-force-winds are also possible on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca * Coast of El Salvador A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today and then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday morning. Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and move near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland over Nicaragua on Sunday, but Julia could still be at or near tropical storm strength when it moves near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Julia is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, and tropical storm conditions are beginning now. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -80.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2022 17:46:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2022 15:23:47 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Julia, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022 000 FONT13 KNHC 081637 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022 AMENDED TO ADD ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN ANDRES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN ANDRES 50 88 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAN ANDRES 64 24 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 4 37(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 71(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BLUEFIELDS 50 X 38(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BLUEFIELDS 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANAGUA 34 X 15(15) 29(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANAGUA 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANAGUA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) TEGUCIGALPA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) GUATEMALA CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LIMON 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that Julia is not a vertically stacked tropical cyclone. The plane first made an initial center fix to the north of the main area of deep convection and found that the central pressure had fallen to 994 mb. About an hour later, a second center fix was made three tenths of a degree farther south near the deep convection, although the lowest pressure there was only about 998 mb. The center has been placed in between the two fixes, hedging toward the lower pressure to the north. Julia's initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the lowering of the central pressure and unanimous satellite classifications of T3.5. So far, the aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt and reliable SFMR winds around 45 kt, so it's assumed the plane has not directly sampled the area of highest winds. Despite the uncertainty in Julia's initial position, it's clear that the storm continues to move quickly westward with an estimated motion of 270/18 kt. With strong ridging to the north, a continued fast westward trajectory is expected during the next couple of days, which should bring Julia's center inland over Nicaragua by early Sunday morning. If Julia's center survives the passage over Central America, it could move just offshore of or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. It still appears that there is about 15 kt of northwesterly or northerly shear affecting Julia, but model guidance indicates this should abate and then turn out of the east-northeast later today and tonight. Therefore, further strengthening is anticipated, and Julia is forecast to become a hurricane later today. It's important to keep in mind that Julia could have a higher intensity when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua than what is explicitly shown, since in this forecast landfall would occur between the 12- and 24-hour forecast times. In fact, SHIPS guidance suggests the intensity could be in the 75-80 kt range at 18 hours, which mirrors what was shown in the previous NHC forecast. Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America. However, even if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific waters in 2 to 3 days. Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands later today and moves onshore in Nicaragua early Sunday morning. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. 3. There is an increasing chance that Julia could remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America, and tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081448 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA * NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER * NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA * PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA * COAST OF EL SALVADOR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 17:42:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071741 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 73.9 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening, and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071713
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located over the south-central
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto