National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071713
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located over the south-central
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with a high density of lightning developed near the center of the cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt. A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday. Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that the center will have dissipated by those times. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves onshore. 2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 075 FONT13 KNHC 071454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) 8(59) X(59) X(59) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 14(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LIMON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve, located about 700 miles west-northwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

Advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone
Thirteen, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 17:45:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 15:30:28 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061745 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 67.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CURACAO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela border A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on observations from Bonaire. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday: Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches. Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of Thirteen was located near 11.5, -67.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 14:43:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 15:23:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061442 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 Deep convection redeveloped near the low-level center early this morning. However, since that time the convection has become sheared off to the east-northeast of the center and is dissipating. A recent partial scatterometer overpass showed some 25-30 kt wind vectors near the decaying convection. Therefore, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. Strong west-southwesterly shear is expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic environment continues to dry out over the next couple of days. Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A turn to the west is expected by tonight while the system moves in the low-level flow around a ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.3N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.8N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 18.8N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022 549 FONT12 KNHC 061442 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122022 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022 560 WTNT22 KNHC 061442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122022 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 34.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 34.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 559 WTNT32 KNHC 061442 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 ...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 34.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 34.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west is expected to occur by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low within the next day. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of Twelve was located near 18.3, -34.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission this morning indicate that the
broad area of low pressure located over the far southeastern
Caribbean Sea does not have a well-defined center. Although the
system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over
the southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and
radar imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized.
The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to
hinder significant development during the next day or so. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 14:39:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 15:22:31 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051438 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 The depression continues to lose organization. Visible satellite imagery reveals an exposed low-level swirl displaced nearly 90 n mi west of its associated deep convection due to strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial advisory intensity of 30 kt may be a little generous, and is based off a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. The shear affecting the depression is forecast to increase further, while the system ingests dry air to its west. This should disrupt significant deep convection from reforming near its low-level center. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the deep convection will not return and the system should become a remnant low within the next 24 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. However, the forecast now indicates that the depression will become a remnant low by 24 h. The 12 h motion of the depression is about 295/8 kt. However, the low-level center has been moving nearly westward over the past several hours. Most of the model guidance indicates a west-northwestward track to the south-southwest of a mid-level ridge over the next couple days until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one and is on the left side of the guidance envelope, as it is assumed that the shallow low-level circulation is going to be steered more by the low-level flow than the models indicate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.6N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.0N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 051437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 32.0W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 32.0W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 35.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 32.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 ...DEPRESSION BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 32.0W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 32.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto