National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...DEPRESSION BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 5 the center of Twelve was located near 15.6, -32.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
concentrated near the low's center. A short-lived tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tonight before
upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further
development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move
northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bann

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031749
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late
this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by
mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
changed little in organization during the last several hours. Slow
development is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward
Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the
Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

467
ABNT20 KNHC 021739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of the wave is
possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011757
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located near the border between North Carolina and
Virginia.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This activity has changed little in organization over the past day
or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development of this system. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the early to middle part of next week while the
system moves westward and then turns northwestward at 5 to 10 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4,
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, in addition to on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301759 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina * Neuse River North Carolina * St. Johns River Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River * Cape Fear River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). Ian is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight. Ian should dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Isle of the Palms to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft * Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft * Savannah River to Isle of the Palms...2-4 ft * Cape Fear River...2-4 ft * East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...1-2 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina soon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the warning areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in North Carolina by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia tonight through early Saturday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 the center of Ian was located near 33.2, -79.1 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 17:59:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:22:53 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301741
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located near the South Carolina coast.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week
as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:52:05 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:25:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 959 WTNT44 KNHC 301455 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the cyclone. Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about half of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR winds of 72 kt. Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the northeastern quadrant. These values support the initial wind speed of 75 kt. NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the advisory value. Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. The new forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. Little change in intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough over water waters. Ian should rapidly transition into an extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday night. It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster toward the coast. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane Warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in North Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 32.4N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 34.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 37.5N 80.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:55:15 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 301454 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 14 16(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 20 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) RALEIGH NC 34 45 16(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ROCKY MT NC 34 37 6(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CAPE HATTERAS 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) FAYETTEVILLE 50 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 17 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NEW RIVER NC 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SURF CITY NC 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FLORENCE SC 50 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) FLORENCE SC 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LITTLE RIVER 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MYRTLE BEACH 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GEORGETOWN SC 64 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CHARLESTON SC 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301453 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA * NEUSE RIVER NORTH CAROLINA * ST. JOHNS RIVER FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO RIVER * CAPE FEAR RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 79.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 79.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.1N 79.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 18:09:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:22:59 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291757
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located offshore of the east Florida coast, and on
Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward
into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291755 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 80.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Jupiter Inlet to Vero Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet * Neuse River * St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River * Little River Inlet to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again by this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station in New Smyrna Beach recently reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft * South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft * St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots. * Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts. * Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina. Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the coastal Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake