National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 the center of Lisa was located near 15.4, -77.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the central Caribbean
Sea.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 300 miles
northeast of Bermuda. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the
low, while it is attached to a frontal boundary to the north, also
has a small core with gale-force winds and a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms near the center. This system has a small
window for some additional subtropical or tropical development
before it is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low
in 2-3 days while it moves east-northeastward. For more information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lisa are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lisa are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Oct 2022 17:51:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Oct 2022 15:23:42 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 538 WTNT45 KNHC 311453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35 kt. After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast. Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend, but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data for the 12 UTC suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required by late today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 000 FONT15 KNHC 311450 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 36(55) X(55) X(55) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 37(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUATEMALA CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 165 WTNT25 KNHC 311448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean:
Earlier data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated that the circulation is becoming better
defined with an area of low pressure located over the central
Caribbean Sea. The aircraft also indicated the system is producing
winds of 35-40 mph to the north of its center. An additional
increase in organization in the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity could prompt the development of a tropical depression or
storm over the next day or so. Potential tropical cyclone advisories
could also be required as soon as this afternoon, and interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system as tropical storm watches or warnings could become necessary.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next
several days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure area located a little more than 100 miles
northeast of Bermuda. In addition, satellite wind data suggest the
system is now merging with a nearby frontal zone as upper-level
winds increase over the system. Therefore, subtropical or tropical
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 100 miles west-northwest of
Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity to the
north of the center as it continues to interact with a nearby
frontal system. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the
system tonight, and the low is forecast to merge with the front by
early Sunday. Therefore, the chances of subtropical development of
this system appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward
for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
Satellite data indicate that a well-defined low pressure area has
formed about 150 miles southwest of Bermuda. This system is
currently producing a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain only
marginally conducive, and any additional development should be slow
to occur over the next day or so. By late Saturday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become even less favorable, and the low is
expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
Therefore, development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate a trough of low pressure
extends over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A
surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern
portion of the trough axis tonight, and a subtropical depression
could form during the next day or so while the system moves
northward over the western Atlantic. By late Saturday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the
low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261741
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development
of this system, and a subtropical depression could form while it
drifts northward during the next couple of days. The system is
then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to
the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 70 miles north of Bermuda remains limited. The low is moving
northward over cooler waters and into an area of strong upper-level
winds. Therefore, the chance for development is decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure extending from near the Turks and Caicos
Islands north-northeastward for several hundred miles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this
system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward.
By this weekend, the system is forecast to meander over the
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure
system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a
well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity
persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become
a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves
west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the
system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters
and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should
limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods
of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda
through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto
Rico over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical
development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern
Atlantic through the early part of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

836
ABNT20 KNHC 231743
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly
conducive, and any subtropical or tropical development of the system
should be slow to occur while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the subtropical Atlantic. By the middle part
of this week, further development appears unlikely as the system
turns northward over the cooler waters of the northwestern Atlantic
and encounters stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east of Bermuda is
producing limited shower activity. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for development during the next few
days, the disturbance could still acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics by early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the subtropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of next week, further development
appears unlikely while the system moves northwestward over cooler
waters of the northwestern Atlantic and encounters stronger
upper-level winds. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small non-tropical area of low pressure is located more than
1400 miles east of Bermuda. While this system is currently only
producing limited shower activity and environmental conditions are
only marginally favorable, recent satellite wind data indicates it
has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. This low is forecast to
move quickly westward at 20-25 mph across the subtropical Atlantic
towards warmer waters, and could acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics by early next week. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci