National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 16:37:41 GMT

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Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 261457 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 11(27) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 12(34) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 12(36) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 19(48) 10(58) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 11(48) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 18(50) 9(59) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 6(22) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 22(46) 8(54) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 34(43) 17(60) 7(67) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 4(30) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 28(36) 14(50) 6(56) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 3(20) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 38(52) 13(65) 5(70) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) 3(35) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 33(46) 11(57) 4(61) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) 2(23) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 31(49) 8(57) 3(60) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 30(49) 9(58) 2(60) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 24(44) 8(52) 2(54) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 17(38) 6(44) 2(46) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 14(37) 4(41) 1(42) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 12(26) 4(30) 1(31) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 11(26) 3(29) 1(30) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 2 6( 8) 26(34) 11(45) 7(52) 2(54) 1(55) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 2 18(20) 40(60) 8(68) 4(72) 1(73) 1(74) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) 1(22) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 32(70) 10(80) 2(82) 1(83) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 10(36) 2(38) 1(39) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 37(52) 14(66) 4(70) 2(72) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 14(28) 3(31) 1(32) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 48(75) 15(90) 3(93) 1(94) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 22(60) 5(65) 1(66) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35) 3(38) 1(39) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 44(55) 28(83) 6(89) 3(92) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 34(51) 9(60) 2(62) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 5(35) 1(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 39(67) 12(79) 4(83) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 13(46) 4(50) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 2(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 17(40) 7(47) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 19(47) 6(53) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 28(41) 14(55) 3(58) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 3(24) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 30(53) 11(64) 2(66) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 8(27) 3(30) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 2(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) 13(42) 3(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 6(20) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 3(30) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 5(22) X(22) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 26 48(74) 1(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 14(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 8 63(71) 10(81) 1(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) HAVANA 50 1 14(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) HAVANA 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 81 12(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLE OF PINES 50 14 23(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLE OF PINES 64 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261457 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep convection has increased within the inner core during the past several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory. The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h. Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36 h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS) environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a 35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then, increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge. Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line with the multi-model consensus aids. The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast. Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the southwestern coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along much of the Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Residents in this area should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 29.8N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 32.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261456 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE IN THE MIDDLE KEYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE * TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.8N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 17:53:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:29:38 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 251753 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 80.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica this evening, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight or early Monday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Ian was located near 15.7, -80.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical Storm
Gaston, located a few hundred miles west of the western Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Despite the proximity of nearby dry air,
upper-level winds appear to be generally conducive and could
support some gradual development through the middle to latter
portion of this week as the system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 251521 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Corrected timing of Ian becoming a hurricane in the intensity discussion below to tonight or early Monday. The satellite presentation of Ian is gradually improving this morning. The overall circulation appears better defined in visible satellite imagery, and fragmented bands of convection around the center are showing increased signs of curvature. The low-level center of Ian also appears better defined in the latest data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Although the vortex is still vertically tilted, tail Doppler radar data suggest the low- and mid-level centers are beginning to converge. An earlier center dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure dropped slightly to 1001 mb, but the aircraft winds thus far have not reflected any strengthening. Therefore, initial intensity for this advisory is held at 45 kt. The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall, the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening. So once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid intensification. The Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) still shows a greater than 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 2-3 days. The intensity guidance remains very aggressive with strengthening Ian, and the NHC forecast reflects this potential. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Monday, and is forecast to reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba. This forecast lies very near the latest SHIPS guidance and the IVCN aid. By day 4, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening as the vertical structure of the hurricane is disrupted. Despite this, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 251456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 19(39) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 22(39) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 18(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 19(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 20(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 14(34) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 17(48) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 10(36) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 9(36) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 7(30) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 4(26) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 3(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20(28) 6(34) 2(36) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 27(40) 5(45) 2(47) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 11(49) 4(53) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) 5(39) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 21(62) 8(70) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 6(34) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 29(59) 11(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 8(32) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 34(53) 16(69) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 13(37) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 24(53) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 24(56) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 34(48) 17(65) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 14(37) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 36(58) 15(73) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 14(45) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 8(27) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 17(57) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 10(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 52(77) 8(85) X(85) X(85) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 44(50) 12(62) 1(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 11(42) 1(43) X(43) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 34(44) 15(59) 1(60) 1(61) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 42(44) 24(68) 4(72) X(72) X(72) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 2(28) X(28) 1(29) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 26(27) 15(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 251455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD... PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA... MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 79.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 79.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 The large convective burst that fired overnight and this morning appears to have lead to Gaston's center reforming under the deep convection further to the north and west. This also evident in GOES-16 GLM lightning data that showed a clear arcing pattern embedded in the convection prior to the new center becoming evident on visible satellite imagery. Since then, the convection has been rapidly decaying, as the storm loses instability support from a sharp upper-level trough as it moves into its axis. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers this morning were still CI 3.0/45-kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. While scatterometer data largely missed the circulation earlier, it still showed tropical storm force winds extending well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. Gaston, post reformation, has made its westward turn, with the latest motion estimate at 270/10 kt. Gaston is currently situated between an anomalously strong deep-layer ridge to its northeast, and a more climatological ridge to its southwest. These features are forecast to merge over the next 24-48 hours to the northwest of Gaston, and should help steer the storm more to the west-southwest for the remainder of its lifespan. The guidance this cycle is just a bit further south and west compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, following the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. Gaston might have had its last convective hurrah this morning, with the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF suggesting the storm will struggle to produce organized convection from here on out. This could be related to the upper-level flow pattern, where the storm is moving out of an environment favorable for ascent into an environment favorable for descent, limiting convection, especially as it continues to traverse 24-25C SSTs. The latest forecast still shows Gaston becoming a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, but if the convection does not return before then, this evolution could occur sooner. The low should persist another day or two before it opens up into a trough in the subtropical Atlantic in about 72 hours, in agreement with the majority of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 39.4N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 39.2N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 38.7N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/0000Z 38.0N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 37.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 36.8N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 14:35:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:23:05 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FONT13 KNHC 251434 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...GASTON MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 36.5W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 36.5 West. Gaston is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is forecast by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...GASTON MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 the center of Gaston was located near 39.4, -36.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251433 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 36.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 36.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.2N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.7N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.4N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 18:07:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:29:34 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 606 WTNT34 KNHC 241752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday when it approaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday, and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14 inches Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up to 5 inches through Tuesday morning These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart