2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 241434
PWSAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURGEO NFLD 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
WTNT22 KNHC 241432
TCMAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 350SE 350SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 61.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N 61.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 17:57:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:24:12 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 17:57:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:30:42 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022
000
WTNT32 KNHC 231755
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ATLANTIC CANADA
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 62.0 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or northward motion is expected later today through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf
of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Fiona
is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it moves
across Atlantic Canada.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
Bermuda: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up
to 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall could result in areas of
flooding, some of which may be significant in nature.
Newfoundland and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).
Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding
within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and
Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across
the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT...
As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 23
the center of Fiona was located near 37.8, -62.0
with movement NE at 35 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 940 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 600 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231749
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022
...GASTON MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 28.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 28.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
south-southeastward and then southward motion is forecast this
evening, followed by a southwestward motion tonight and early
Saturday, and a westward motion on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through tonight. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
...GASTON MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
As of 6:00 PM GMT Fri Sep 23
the center of Gaston was located near 39.8, -28.5
with movement SE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231742
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located north-northeast of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Gaston,
located near the central Azores, on Tropical Depression Nine,
located over the central Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Depression
Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite unfavorable
upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or
northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022
936
WTNT43 KNHC 231457
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022
Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning.
Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and
western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass
showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory
and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The
tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the
northwestern quadrant based on these data.
The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for
now. Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical
wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over
the next day or so. In spite of the relatively hostile conditions,
Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual
weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough
in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The official
intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the
previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly
stronger than the consensus model aids.
The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt. A
sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses
the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north.
Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the
west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the
end of the period. The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores.
2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 40.2N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 14:55:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:37:01 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
170
FONT13 KNHC 231454
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 64 22(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PONTA DELGADA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
000
WTNT44 KNHC 231454
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
The depression remains highly sheared this morning. Visible
satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate the center of the system is still exposed
to the east of the associated deep convection. The center also
appears a bit elongated, with a couple of low-level swirls evident
in satellite imagery that appear to be rotating around a mean
center. The aircraft winds and a blend of the latest satellite
estimates support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.
The long-term motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at 12 kt. The cyclone is expected to move more westward over the
next 24-36 h as a narrow low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north
of the system. Then, an amplifying deep-layer trough over the
eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the ridge beginning on Sunday,
which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward
as it approaches western Cuba early next week. There is increased
spread in the guidance for this portion of the track forecast, with
day 5 positions that span from the eastern Gulf to east of the
Florida peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the
center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and
HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one,
with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the
latest model consensus trends.
The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the
cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight
strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear
decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant
intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess
of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased
from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification
as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system
is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a
strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once
it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida
peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the
coming days.
2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical
storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday.
Watches for these locations may be required later today or on
Saturday.
3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
768
FONT14 KNHC 231453
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 23(41)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 20(57)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 20(65)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 33(60)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 35(54)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 31(43)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 5(35)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 45(59) 10(69)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 36(64) 5(69)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 3(35)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 4(36)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 12(64) X(64)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 7(29) X(29)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 1(30) X(30)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
000
WTNT34 KNHC 231453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on
Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday
night and early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:
Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia:
Additional 1 to 2 inches
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 23
the center of Nine was located near 14.2, -70.1
with movement WNW at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
000
WTNT23 KNHC 231453
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 130SE 160SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 29.2W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 29.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
000
WTNT24 KNHC 231453
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.5W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 70.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022
384
WTNT42 KNHC 231449
TCDAT2
Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022
Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic
Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda
Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on
the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it
remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at
700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind
was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up
to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show
that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep
convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air
and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system.
Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very
quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected
to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and
merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of
Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight
or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin
well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The
models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but
continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into
early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of
the guidance envelope.
Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the
increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence
that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic
Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical
transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the
time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the IVCN and HCCA models after that.
Key Messages:
1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.
2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few
more hours in Bermuda.
3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Snell
NHC Webmaster
2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022
000
WTNT45 KNHC 231445
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022
Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with
organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.
The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath
the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus,
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the
regional hurricane track models.
The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper-
level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late
this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.
Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
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