Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 241434 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Forecast Advisory Number 41

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241432 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA * WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC * ANTICOSTI ISLAND * SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND * BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND * FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 350SE 350SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N 61.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Fiona Public Advisory Number 37A

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231755 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 62.0W ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule * Prince Edward Island * Isle-de-la-Madeleine * Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia * West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec * Anticosti Island * Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland * Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland * Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 62.0 West. Fiona is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected later today through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Fiona is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Bermuda: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in nature. Newfoundland and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm). Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 13A

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 600 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 600 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...GASTON MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 28.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 28.5 West. Gaston is moving toward the southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower south-southeastward and then southward motion is forecast this evening, followed by a southwestward motion tonight and early Saturday, and a westward motion on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the western and central Azores through tonight. See products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western and central Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022)

2 years 9 months ago
...GASTON MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... As of 6:00 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 the center of Gaston was located near 39.8, -28.5 with movement SE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2 years 9 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located north-northeast of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Gaston,
located near the central Azores, on Tropical Depression Nine,
located over the central Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Depression
Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite unfavorable
upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or
northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 13

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022 936 WTNT43 KNHC 231457 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022 Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning. Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the northwestern quadrant based on these data. The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for now. Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over the next day or so. In spite of the relatively hostile conditions, Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly stronger than the consensus model aids. The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt. A sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north. Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the end of the period. The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores. 2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 40.2N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 170 FONT13 KNHC 231454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 64 22(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 2

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231454 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The depression remains highly sheared this morning. Visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the center of the system is still exposed to the east of the associated deep convection. The center also appears a bit elongated, with a couple of low-level swirls evident in satellite imagery that appear to be rotating around a mean center. The aircraft winds and a blend of the latest satellite estimates support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The long-term motion of the depression is still west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone is expected to move more westward over the next 24-36 h as a narrow low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. Then, an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the ridge beginning on Sunday, which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward as it approaches western Cuba early next week. There is increased spread in the guidance for this portion of the track forecast, with day 5 positions that span from the eastern Gulf to east of the Florida peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one, with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the latest model consensus trends. The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the coming days. 2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday. Watches for these locations may be required later today or on Saturday. 3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 768 FONT14 KNHC 231453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 23(41) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 20(57) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 20(65) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 33(60) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 35(54) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 31(43) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 5(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 45(59) 10(69) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 36(64) 5(69) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 3(35) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 4(36) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 12(64) X(64) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 7(29) X(29) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 1(30) X(30) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 2

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia: Additional 1 to 2 inches Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 13

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 130SE 160SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 29.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 29.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 70.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Fiona Forecast Discussion Number 37

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 384 WTNT42 KNHC 231449 TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at 700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the IVCN and HCCA models after that. Key Messages: 1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few more hours in Bermuda. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Snell
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1

2 years 9 months ago
Issued at 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231445 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022 Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or aircraft data. The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus, with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the regional hurricane track models. The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA. Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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5 years 9 months ago
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