3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
000
WTNT22 KNHC 200842
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 32.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 32.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK...
As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
the center of Peter was located near 19.1, -59.5
with movement WNW at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
000
WTNT21 KNHC 200840
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 59.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171152
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway
between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
is still likely to form over the weekend or early next week while
moving toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic and then near or north of the Leeward Islands by
Monday and Tuesday. Interests in the Leeward Islands should
monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located
about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, remains
broad and elongated, and most of the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is displaced well to the north and east of
the center. However, this system is still likely to become a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before it makes a
transition to a non-tropical gale-force low by Saturday or Saturday
night while moving northeastward at about 15 mph away from the
United States mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Regardless of
development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through
this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur over the next few days while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov
High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the
Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:53:37 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:52:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 15:22:36 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of High Island
including Galveston Bay.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Sabine Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn
is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is
anticipated on Thursday.
NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical
depression by tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph
(85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu
Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of
39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.
Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.
SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14
the center of Nicholas was located near 29.4, -95.0
with movement ENE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141742
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near
Houston.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 15:41:09 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
000
WTNT44 KNHC 141457
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with
surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken
while moving farther inland. The strongest winds recently reported
near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt at a TCOON
observing station near Sabine Pass, Texas. The strongest winds over
water south of southwestern Louisiana are based on Doppler radar
average velocities of 45-50 kt between 5000-7500 ft. Based on these
wind data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The
estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on nearby surface
observations in the Houston metropolitan area. Further weakening is
expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional
effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern
Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear. The latter
condition is expected to cause the low- and upper-level circulation
to decouple in about 24 hours, which will hasten the weakening
process. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity
forecast, and Nicholas is now expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by
late Wednesday.
Nicholas is now moving northeastward or 050 degrees at a slower
forward speed of 5 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the
east-northeast by tonight, and move eastward more slowly on
Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall
over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering
flow collapses. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but
slightly slower than the previous advisory tack.
Although the winds associated with Nicholas will be weakening,
heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue
along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas,
across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Significant rainfall
amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of
life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor
to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river
basins and urban areas.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 29.6N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021
000
FONT14 KNHC 141452
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FORT POLK LA 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
LAKE CHARLES 34 7 7(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 8 6(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JASPER TX 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
JASPER TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KOUNTZE TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GALVESTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOUSTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FREEPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021
000
WTNT24 KNHC 141451
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF HIGH
ISLAND...TEXAS.
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
BOLIVAR...TEXAS.
THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF CAMERON...
LOUISIANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 95.5W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 95.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:31 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:22 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
000
WTNT44 KNHC 131436
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along
with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that
Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes
since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern
dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears
to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi
north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a
pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center,
while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to
upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously
mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going
to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas'
northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center
is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data.
The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb
flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent
surface winds.
The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and
ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core
erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good
agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally
well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward
reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory
track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model
envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.
Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted,
recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should
reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that
westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas.
However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level
shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which
is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus
reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind
shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall
as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It
is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before
landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of
the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after
landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly
shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in
degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a
remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized
metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass by late afternoon through tonight.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of south Texas into the afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
000
FONT14 KNHC 131435
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FORT POLK LA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
LAKE CHARLES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CAMERON LA 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
JASPER TX 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
KOUNTZE TX 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 12(13) 7(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
GALVESTON TX 34 14 30(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
GALVESTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HOUSTON TX 34 2 42(44) 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
HOUSTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUSTIN TX 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 13 54(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 58 6(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 20(22) 8(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
MATAGORDA TX 34 61 26(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MATAGORDA TX 50 2 28(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 75 15(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
PORT O CONNOR 50 12 36(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ROCKPORT TX 34 42 12(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
ROCKPORT TX 50 6 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 13 10(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MCALLEN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HARLINGEN TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
000
WTNT34 KNHC 131435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to
Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay.
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine
Pass.
The Storm Surge Watch from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin
Bay has been discontinued.
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8
West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the
coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus
Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph
(65 km/h).
The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX
Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
afternoon or this evening.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
3 years 8 months ago
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13
the center of Nicholas was located near 26.4, -96.8
with movement N at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 8 months ago
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