National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 17:53:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 15:24:41 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 171753 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 ...FIONA'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 64.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.1 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest by Sunday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or south of the Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night. Fiona should then move near the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Sunday night while moving near Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night and are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon, spread westward across Puerto Rico tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches possible, particularly on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches. These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. Very heavy rains and flooding have occurred over portions of the Leeward Islands since Friday. A station at St. Claude Matouba Irfa, in the mountains in southwestern Guadeloupe, recently measured a 24-hour rainfall total of 19.46 inches (494.3 mm). STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...FIONA'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 17 the center of Fiona was located near 16.6, -64.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central subtropical
Atlantic are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the early or middle
part of next week while it moves generally northward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning. From a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around most of the storm. However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the circulation still lacks some vertical coherency. From the best we can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection. The central pressure may have risen a bit during this re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to be 50 kt. With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from yesterday. The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to gradually recurve around the western extent of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. The big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on this cycle. The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. The caveat to this forecast is that additional center re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track forecast. Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for potential shifts in the track east or west. The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of these favorable conditions given its current structure. But either way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids. If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today, and to Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions will reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in Puerto Rico. 3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171455 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO BARAHONA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.5W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.5W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 63.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 171455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 3(38) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 38(46) 17(63) 2(65) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 13(33) 1(34) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 26(42) 7(49) 1(50) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 9(25) 2(27) X(27) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 1 49(50) 27(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) PONCE PR 50 X 6( 6) 24(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 29(32) 43(75) 8(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 3( 3) 34(37) 12(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 45(47) 23(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 30 43(73) 6(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) VIEQUES PR 50 1 18(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) VIEQUES PR 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 30 30(60) 4(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT JOHN 34 31 25(56) 5(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT JOHN 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 62 21(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) SAINT CROIX 50 5 20(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 25 6(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SABA 34 63 1(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161750 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 ...FIONA'S CENTER APPROACHING GUADELOUPE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 60.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Barahona, and for the north coast from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Barahona * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 60.3 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands tonight, near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning this afternoon and continuing through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Saturday, and across Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Dominica this evening or tonight and across the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning late Sunday. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall totals: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Eastern Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches possible Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of onshore winds Saturday into Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Swells will then reach the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2022 17:50:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2022 15:22:40 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located just to the east of Guadeloupe.

Western Atlantic:
A frontal low over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles
west-northwest of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to move eastward
to east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph, and development into a
tropical cyclone is not anticipated due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Central Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean are associated with the northern end of a tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible early next
week while it moves northwestward to northward over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 537 FONT12 KNHC 161449 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 18(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 12(42) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) 3(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 8(26) 2(28) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) 14(41) 6(47) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 28(34) 9(43) 1(44) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 23(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 25(46) 10(56) 1(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 12(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 1 9(10) 40(50) 5(55) 2(57) X(57) 1(58) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 3(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 2 14(16) 26(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 2 22(24) 40(64) 3(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 8 26(34) 6(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) SABA 34 10 42(52) 8(60) X(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) SABA 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 15 45(60) 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 26 43(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 43 14(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ANTIGUA 34 62 17(79) X(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) ANTIGUA 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 34 77 17(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GUADELOUPE 50 15 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GUADELOUPE 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 2 31(33) 12(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 35 19(54) X(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MARTINIQUE 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 468 WTNT42 KNHC 161449 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 Convective activity is occurring much closer to the low-level center of Fiona this morning, suggesting that the deep-layer westerly shear has decreased a bit. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Fiona during the past several hours, and winds as high as 57 kt were reported about 2500 ft above the surface, along with SFMR winds slightly higher than 45 kt. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for now, but Fiona could easily attain 50 kt soon if the deep convection remains close to the center. After losing latitude most of the day yesterday and overnight, Fiona has started moving north of due west, with an initial motion of 275/12 kt. A north-of-due-west motion with some slowing of the forward speed is expected through early Sunday, with Fiona steered across the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean Sea by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Fiona then reaches the western extent of the ridge just beyond 48 hours, and it is expected to move more slowly and turn northwestward across Hispaniola in 3-4 days, and then be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas in about 5 days. The spread among the deterministic track models and the ensembles has decreased since yesterday, and there's therefore a little bit more confidence in the NHC track prediction. In addition, there has not been much shift in the guidance since the previous forecast cycle, and the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction, and in the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Fiona is located near a tight gradient of deep-layer shear, and it's possible that its south-of-due-west motion since yesterday brought it into a lighter-shear environment for the convection to build back closer to the center. Model guidance indicates that the shear is likely to remain moderate for much of the forecast period, but at the same time, upper-level divergence and mid-level moisture are forecast to increase. Coupled with the expected decrease in forward speed, these factors could allow Fiona's structure to become more vertically stacked over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and gradual strengthening is still anticipated during the next 3 days. Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast period. This prediction is slightly below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Leeward Islands within the warning area starting this afternoon, and will spread westward across the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Dominica tonight and in the British Virgin Islands on Saturday. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and early Monday. Watches could be required for portions of the Dominican Republic later today. 4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.0N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...S COAST OF DOM. REP. 96H 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 115 WTNT22 KNHC 161448 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W...SOUTH COAST OF DOM. REPUB. MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

...FIONA'S CENTER APPROACHING GUADELOUPE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of Fiona was located near 16.2, -60.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2022 17:34:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2022 15:24:15 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151734 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FIONA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 54.8W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 54.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through late Saturday, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area by Friday night. RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across eastern Puerto Rico. Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the Leeward Islands later today, spreading westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FIONA... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of Fiona was located near 16.5, -54.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

895
ABNT20 KNHC 151725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fiona are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fiona are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 151451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) 1(30) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 13(41) 3(44) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) 1(30) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 29(43) 4(47) 1(48) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 24(43) 4(47) X(47) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 22(44) 2(46) 1(47) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 23(48) 4(52) X(52) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 7(50) X(50) 1(51) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 36(49) 7(56) 1(57) 1(58) SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 35(53) 5(58) 1(59) X(59) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 33(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 4( 4) 39(43) 18(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X 3( 3) 42(45) 18(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 3( 3) 33(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) X(20) 1(21) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022 Moderate westerly shear continues to displace Fiona's deep convection about a degree to the east of the low-level center, with convective cloud tops as cold as about -80 degrees Celsius. A recent ASCAT pass showed a solid area of 40- to 45-kt winds, and with the scatterometer's known undersampling characteristics, it's not out of the question that Fiona's intensity could be a little higher. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt, pending additional data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon. Moderate shear, generally out of the west, is expected to continue for much of the forecast period. That in itself should suppress significant strengthening, but it may not be enough to prevent any strengthening at all. Fiona's current intensity is a testament to its resilience in the face of the shear it has experienced over the past 24 hours. There has been a general uptick in the intensity guidance after 48 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward during that time. It is important to note, however, that the official forecast still lies below the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus aids from day 3 onward, and additional adjustments to the intensity forecast could be required in subsequent advisories if these trends continue. Strong low- to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic is steering Fiona due west, or 270 degrees at 12 kt, and this general motion, with some gradual decrease in forward speed, is likely to continue for the next couple of days. There is notable model divergence after 36 hours, with the stronger GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions turning a slower Fiona northwestward over the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands. On the other hand, the ECWMF, UKMET, and all of the consensus aids maintain a faster westward to west-northwestward motion across the far northeastern Caribbean Sea through day 3. Given the expectation that moderate shear is likely to continue, the NHC track forecast favors the less-intense scenarios and shows a solution moving just south of the Virgin Islands and then near Puerto Rico in a few days. After day 3, a weakness near the western extent of the ridge should allow Fiona to gain some latitude and possibly turn toward the northwest, moving across the Greater Antilles into the far southwestern Atlantic. On the whole, the NHC track forecast remains steady from previous predictions, largely following a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, and interests in these locations should monitor the latest forecast updates. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area by Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands within the watch area by Friday night. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and watches will likely be issued for some of those areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.6N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.6N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.9N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.8N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 19.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg