National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...DANIELLE SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 3:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 6 the center of Danielle was located near 42.2, -41.2 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061430 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 41.2W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 41.2W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.7N 37.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.5N 32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 50.1N 32.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.2N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.5N 24.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.2N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

438
ABNT20 KNHC 051746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Danielle, located about 900 miles west-northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Earl, located about 700 miles south of
Bermuda.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
with this system in the next day or so, and environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development. A
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as
this system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 14:57:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 15:32:04 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051456 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 Earl is attempting to restructure again this morning. Convection, which had been primarily located east of the center, due to persistent moderate westerly vertical wind shear, has begun to pivot up-shear into the northern quadrant of the storm. A NOAA-P3 mission that was in the storm this morning indicated the low-level wind field in the northern semicircle of the storm had also intensified, with several dropsondes indicating boundary layer mean winds in the 55-65 kt range and one reported a surface wind gust of 57 kt. These values match the twin Doppler radar (TDR) onboard of the aircraft, with peak 0.5 km winds above 64 kt. The peak SFMR winds from the mission were 58 kt, with 700-mb flight-level winds at 63 kt. The satellite presentation this morning though remains somewhat ragged, with the low-level circulation partially exposed, though TDR analysis suggest the vertical tilt between the low- and mid-level centers has decreased compared to yesterday. Based partially on the these aircraft observations, the intensity has been set at 55 kt for this advisory, which also agrees with the latest TAFB intensity estimate. The center of the cyclone may have relocated a bit northeast of the previous position, but the mean general motion appears to still be to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The track model guidance is generally in good agreement in the short-term that this slow northward motion should continue, as the cyclone moves poleward through a weakness in the deep-layer ridging to its north. This mid-level ridge is then forecast to continue breaking down as a deep-layer trough approaches from the eastern United States. This synoptic pattern change should be enough for Earl to begin a somewhat faster north-northeastward motion after 72 hours. However, after this time, uncertainty in the along-track direction between both deterministic and ensemble guidance starts to increase dramatically, with the GFS and its ensemble mean faster, and the ECWMF and its ensemble mean slower. The latest NHC track forecast is a bit further to the east early on, due to the adjustment in the initial position, but ends up near, if a bit slower, than the previous forecast track by the end of the forecast period. This track is close to an average of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. Given the large uncertainty observed in the guidance at day 5, forecast track confidence in that time frame is lower than normal. While Earl was found to be a bit stronger by the NOAA-P3 aircraft this morning, westerly vertical wind shear is still quite evident, and both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance suggests this shear could actually increase a bit more over the next 24-36 hours. Thus, only a slight additional amount of intensification is forecast today, followed by Earl remaining steady over the 24-36 hour period. After the cyclone moves poleward of the shear zone induced by a nearby tropical upper-tropospheric trough, the shear is expected to decrease significantly, allowing more robust intensification. The tropical storm wind field is also forecast to increase dramatically during this period as a result of the system also undergoing a positive upper-level trough interaction. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak intensity of 105 kt by day 5, though some regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC) are a bit higher than this forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in areas that receive heavier rainfall totals. 2. Currently Earl is forecast to track to the southeast of Bermuda. However, the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 051451 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 34(45) 8(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 766 WTNT31 KNHC 051450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 ...EARL NOW A 65-MPH TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 65.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 65.3 West. Earl is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northwest or north is forecast to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours followed by a gradual turn to the north-northeast thereafter. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible later today, with little change in strength expected tomorrow. Earl could still become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Monday. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals. WIND: Winds are diminishing across the the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 046 WTNT21 KNHC 051448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 14:39:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 15:24:26 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051436 TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded since this morning. Cloud tops have warmed and its eye-like feature is not very well defined anymore. The hurricane has reached a relatively cool part of the Gulf Stream, which could be a main factor in its apparent weakening. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered conservatively to 75 kt, which is at the high end of the estimates. The lower initial intensity has also contributed to a lower intensity forecast, but the idea is generally the same. Danielle should slowly weaken during the next few days as it continues northeastward over marginally warm waters. The exact timing of the cyclone's upcoming extratropical transition is still uncertain, but most models indicate it should complete the process on or by Thursday. Further weakening is expected by all global models after that time, which continues to be reflected in the NHC forecast. Negligible change was made to the portion of the track forecast when Danielle is expected to be a tropical cyclone. The hurricane is forecast to move generally northeastward today and east-northeastward through the middle of the week, steered by a mid-latitude system approaching from the northwest. At the end of the forecast period, most global models now suggest Danielle could make a sharp northward turn as an extratropical cyclone. This would represent a significant change to the day 4-5 forecast, so I would prefer to see if that stays consistent for another cycle of model runs before making too big of a change. The official track forecast is therefore very close to the multi-model consensus through 72 h, but is notably to the south and east of the consensus at days 4 and 5, That said, it has still been adjusted to the northwest of the previous forecast at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 40.2N 43.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 41.1N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 43.4N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 44.7N 33.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 46.3N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 49.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 52.0N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 000 FONT15 KNHC 051435 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 ...DANIELLE WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 43.9W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 43.9 West. Danielle is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued north-northeast to northeast motion is expected today, with a turn toward the east-northeast likely by Tuesday night. Danielle is then forecast to conitnue east-northeastward until late this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DANIELLE WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Sep 5 the center of Danielle was located near 40.2, -43.9 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051434 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 43.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 43.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 44.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 41.1N 43.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.4N 36.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.7N 33.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 46.3N 30.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 52.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

...EARL NOW A 65-MPH TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of Earl was located near 21.5, -65.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Hurricane Danielle, located about 1000 miles west of the Azores,
and on Tropical Storm Earl, located about 80 miles north of the
Virgin Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a
tropical wave located just off the west African coast. An area of
low pressure could form later this week and subsequent gradual
development is possible as this system moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:00:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:29:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041459 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 This morning, Earl developed a large convective burst, with cold convective cloud tops below -80 C and the larger cirrus plume obscuring the low-level center. A NOAA-P3 mission has also be flying through Earl this morning, showing that the center may be in the process of reorganizing closer to this recent convective burst. WSR-88D radar imagery from Puerto Rico earlier showed a well-defined mid-level vortex associated with this convective burst up at 20 k feet, which matched the NOAA-P3 TDR data, but it is unclear how close the surface vortex is relative to this mid-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45-kt and T3.5/55-kt respectively, though objective estimates are somewhat lower, with ADT only at 33-kt and SATCON at 44-kt. A blend of these estimates and the wind data from the NOAA-P3 mission support maintaining the intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Earl appears to have slowed down further this morning, and may be in the process of relocating closer to the convective burst, with the latest motion an uncertain 310/3 kt. As mentioned previously, there is a weakness in the mid-level ridging to the north of the storm, and this should enable Earl to make a gradual turn to the north-northwest and north over the next 24-72 hours. The mid-level ridging then shifts mostly east of the cyclone, allowing a continued slow north-northeastward motion thereafter. The latest track guidance has shifted east in the short term due in part to the initial position, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction and lies just west of TVCN consensus. However, the latest track forecast is not as far to the east as the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), GFS or HWRF forecasts, and additional eastward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. The large convective burst this morning makes the short-term intensity forecast somewhat tricky. If the low-level center is able to reform and become better aligned with the mid-level center, some intensification could occur. If and when this occurs is important, with the latest HWRF and GFS forecasts suggesting this could occur as soon as later today, resulting in more significant intensification. However, the HMON, HAFS-S, and ECMWF suggest it may take a few days for a more aligned structure to occur, likely delayed by continued moderate (15-25 kts) southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to persist for the next 2-3 days. The latest NHC intensity forecast opts to split the difference, now showing gradual intensification over the next 24-48 hours, making Earl a hurricane in 48 hours. This is higher than the previous NHC intensity forecast, but is under the latest HCCA, HWRF, and GFS-SHIPS guidance. After 72 h, shear is expected to decrease, and more robust intensification is possible thereafter, with the latest intensity forecast now making Earl a major hurricane by 120 h, in good agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. At this juncture, tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these locations through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, but gusty winds, especially in squalls, remain possible on those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.6N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 25.7N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 29.6N 61.8W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 041454 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 ...EARL MEANDERING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 64.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.4 West. Earl is meandering currently with an estimated motion toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn to the north-northwest is expected to begin tomorrow followed by a turn northward later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Earl could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin